Transferable assets in France estimated at 6,200 billion euros between 2025 and 2040 according to the CSN

A gigantic amount, although revised downwards. The Superior Council of Notaries (CSN) estimates the assets that could be transmitted in France between 2025 and 2040 at some 6,200 billion euros, in a study published on Tuesday. These years will in fact be those of “the great transmission”, linked to the aging and death of the baby boomers, who will then be 80 years old and over. While some studies suggest up to 9,000 billion euros of assets transferred over the period, the CSN emphasizes the difficulty in precisely measuring the phenomenon.

To arrive at its median hypothesis of 6,191 billion euros (5,100 in the low hypothesis and 7,558 in the high hypothesis), the CSN crossed data from INSEE and the General Directorate of Public Finances with field feedback from notarial offices. “Large transfer has become a major subject of public debate,” notes Bertrand Savouré, president of the CSN, in a press release, recalling that notaries establish 95% of inheritance declarations in France.

Skip the ad

The study also shows that the transmission of assets is not limited to inheritances received upon death: more than a quarter of inheritances, or 27.2%, were preceded by at least one donation. According to the responding notarial studies, the first donation occurs on average at 64 years and 3 months, and involves approximately 286,000 euros. At death, the average amount of “inheritance assets” bequeathed is 307,500 euros, according to this CSN report. An amount which does not “contain the assets of a donation made previously”, specify the notaries.

No “tax windfall”

Notaries also point out that more than 60% of inheritances do not give rise to any payment of inheritance tax, due in particular to existing reductions and exemptions. A significant proportion of transfers are also made via life insurance, often outside of traditional inheritance declarations. The CSN thus contests the idea that this wave of inheritances could lead to “a tax windfall”.

With constant legislation, the “great transfer” should only lead to an increase of less than 30% in the annual flow of inheritances compared to the period 2018-2024, according to him. With gift and inheritance taxes currently representing around 4.5% of tax revenue, the increase “cannot therefore contribute decisively to the recovery of public finances,” they write.

Notaries are calling for facilitation of early transfers, “to support solidarity” in families “and boost the economy”. They also underline that the financing of end-of-life care and dependency “will certainly burden the heritage likely to be transmitted (...) and influence the decisions of generations who anticipate this eventuality”.