This is a first since the start of the war, more than six months ago. The United States struck two Iranian oil ships off the coast of the Islamic Republic, according to information from Axios, Wednesday September 2. The boats were anchored "north of the line" of the maritime blockade decided by Washington, in response to that imposed by Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz. These strikes were carried out with drones firing "missiles which hit the engine rooms", says the media, citing American officials.
The US Middle East Command (Centcom) released images of several strikes on Wednesday, including two ships hit by missiles at the stern. The message mentions, among other things, strikes carried out against “maritime installations and assets”, as part of reprisals. Axios calls this new American strategy “tanker for tanker’s sake”. On Monday, two commercial ships, the Sidr and the Senegal Property, which were transporting Saudi oil, were hit by projectiles while leaving the strait.
Centcom refused to confirm Axios' information to franceinfo, simply mentioning "maritime assets" among the targets. Before specifying, in the evening, that three commercial ships had already been taken out of service as of September 2.
Contacted, the specialized company Vanguard Tech estimates that the two tankers targeted are "probably" the Sinopa and the Hawk, tankers over 270 and 330 meters long. Both fly the Iranian flag and are linked to the National Iranian Tanker Company, a private subsidiary of the Iranian national company. “They seem to be empty,” comments Samir Madani, co-founder of the tracking site TankerTrackers, to franceinfo. “The Americans don’t hit tankers loaded with oil.”
Iranian exports stopped since mid-July
Washington is launching these new retaliatory measures at a time when its blockade is beginning to produce its effects. Iran has been unable to export its oil for seven weeks, since the failure of the memorandum of understanding and the reestablishment of military control by the United States between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. “According to our observations by satellite imagery, the last departure of Iranian crude oil dates back to July 12,” notes Samir Madani, adding that “31 tankers loaded with crude are in Iran, transporting a total of 36.75 million barrels.”
“The blockade imposed by the US Navy is preventing shipments of Iranian crude.”
Samir Madani, co-founder of the TankerTrackers site
at franceinfo
The shortfall is immense for Tehran. Before the war, Iran exported around 1.8 million barrels of crude every day, providing it with five billion dollars per month in associated revenues, or even a little more when integrating petroleum and petrochemical products, assesses Homayoun Falakshahi, analyst at Kpler and crude oil specialist, interviewed by franceinfo.
However, “satellite imagery shows that the increase in Iranian storage is quite small,” observes the specialist. Which means "most likely Iran has reduced production to meet domestic demand", rather than hoarding crude oil in the hope of better days.
Tehran had anticipated the potential effects of a maritime blockade, taking advantage of the signing of the memorandum of understanding with Washington at the end of June. Part of its oil had left the area, in order to reach the Asian coasts and wait there. “These available stocks were around 90 million barrels,” explains Homayoun Falakshahi, “but today there are only between 30 and 40 million left, waiting to be unloaded, particularly in China.” At the current rate of one million barrels per day, all these tankers will be emptied by mid-October.
Towards the end of the oil bonanza
The Kpler analyst estimates that we will still have to wait “two months before Iran receives all of the associated revenues, around 3 billion euros”. By early to mid-December, "Iran's oil revenues will fall to zero." These oil revenues, he adds, "represent almost all of Iran's foreign currency reserves, in an economy closely linked to the dollar." Homayoun Falakshahi therefore considers the American blockade more “impactful” than the strikes.
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At the beginning of May, the United States announced that it would guide ships through the strait, in order to force the blockade imposed by Iran. But this operation called “Project Freedom” was quickly thwarted by Iranian fire. Tehran had introduced taxes, of confidential amounts, on ships using the strait, under the supervision of a dedicated authority: the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA).
Four months later, the situation was reversed. Iran is now unable to export its oil. And exports, for other countries in the region, have returned to around "70% of the pre-war volume", including "the oil pipelines available to the Saudis and the Emiratis", assesses Homayoun Falakshahi. It is difficult to estimate the number of vessels involved, as they sail along the Omani coast with the lights off and the signal disconnected at night in order to thwart Iranian surveillance. But the increase in transit “of commercial ships indicates that Iran is having difficulty preventing certain commercial ships from using the southern route,” analyzes the Institute for the Study of War.
Washington is banking on the economic vise
Faced with Tehran, Washington now finds itself in a diplomatic impasse. And military escalation options (targeting critical infrastructure, land invasion, etc.) are costly and risky. The Trump administration therefore chose the option of financial sanctions to try to force the Iranian regime to bend. Ten days ago, the US Treasury Secretary unveiled Operation Economic Outcast, with the aim of financially suffocating the Islamic Republic.
Scott Bessent said the sale of Iranian oil, particularly to China, was a “solved problem”. His plan includes so-called “secondary” sanctions. For example, they target bank branches suspected of links with Iran, in order to complicate the repatriation of currencies and isolate Tehran. “The maritime blockade is the main card played by the Trump administration,” summarizes Clément Therme, associate researcher at Ifri, to franceinfo. The Iran specialist speaks of a "double punishment" for the regime: "It can no longer export oil and can no longer access its frozen currencies. Economically, the Islamic Republic has lost."
