The United List party of outgoing Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs comes first in the legislative elections on Saturday, according to exit polls, indicating that the Baltic country should not change its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian line.
But populist parties also performed well, following an election campaign dominated by concerns about neighboring Russia and the cost of living in the country. Andris Kulbergs' party would obtain 35.6% of the vote, according to exit polls published by the public media LSM.
“It’s higher than expected”
“It is not yet finished, but it is higher than expected,” reacted Mr. Kulbergs to journalists. “This means that people really want change,” which he said means “economic growth” and “a future for the children of Latvia,” continued Andris Kulbergs, who only took office as prime minister in May.
His coalition, whose pre-election polls predicted a weakening, should however probably not be renewed in its current form.
One of its partners, the Union of Greens and Farmers, would not pass the 5% threshold necessary to enter parliament, the Saeima, with only 3.7% of the votes.
Populist parties in 2nd and 4th place
Four years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the security question largely dominated the debates. A member of NATO and the EU since 2004, Latvia considers Russia its main strategic threat and has sharply increased its defense spending, to almost 5% of GDP.
Most of the parties likely to enter Parliament support a military reinforcement and continued aid to kyiv. But social-economic issues - rising costs of living, low wages, health and demographic decline, with Latvia being the most modest of the three Baltic states in terms of living standards - have been at the heart of the campaign and the vote could give the populists an important place in the 100-seat unicameral Parliament.
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The populist Sovereign Power party (Suverena vara, SV), led by Julija Stepanenko, finished in fourth place with 10.8% of the vote, according to exit polls. Critical of aid to Ukraine and the increase in military spending, this party highlights the country's economic difficulties. Considered pro-Russian by its detractors, SV nevertheless remains surrounded by a cordon santé by most of the other parties.
Another populist party, Latvia First (LPV) comes in second place with 11.3%. Led by businessman Ainars Slesers, it could become an essential partner in the next coalition negotiations. The Progressives (PRO), a pro-European social democratic party in favor of reinforced social protection and aid to Ukraine, would come in third position with 11.1%. Populist parties could obtain better scores in the final results, their voters being more reluctant to admit in the polls their support for parties considered more radical.
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Russian-speaking population
“I really believe that the biggest increase in the actual results, compared to the exit polls, will be for the parties supported by the Russian-speaking electorate, namely Sovereign Power and Latvia First,” Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, told AFP.
Sigita Struberga, secretary general of the Latvian transatlantic association LATO, also believes that it is too early to accurately predict the configuration of any future coalition. “We really have to wait for the real percentages, which could be slightly different from what we are seeing at the moment,” she told AFP.
The vote of the Russian-speaking population - around 35% of the Latvian population -, long gathered around a single party, Harmony, which disappeared from Parliament in 2022, is in the process of changing. Without questions of identity disappearing, a growing part of this electorate now votes according to economic and social criteria, particularly for populist parties. Beyond the distribution of seats, the challenge will be the formation of a coalition capable of governing, the constitution of which could take a long time to negotiate.
