United Nations: Earth's temperature is about to exceed the safe threshold

United Nations: Earth's temperature is about to exceed the safe threshold

The United Nations for the first time admitted that it is inevitable that the Earth's temperature will increase by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.

Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times is the goal agreed upon by nearly 200 countries at the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. If this threshold is exceeded, the phenomena of ice melting, ecosystem degradation, sea level rise... will become extreme, putting people and the planet at serious risk.

However, in a report dated September 2, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) said the risk of the Earth's temperature increasing beyond the above threshold in the period 2026-2030, due to the burning of coal, oil, and gas. At the same time, humanity has lost the opportunity to prevent the worst disaster caused by global warming.

The UNEP report points out that in the most optimistic scenario, temperatures will peak at 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) around mid-century, if countries pursue ambitious climate goals. After peaking, global temperatures will gradually drop below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. On the contrary, if governments maintain current policies, the temperature increase will be pushed to more than 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

That is, even with the best scenario, humanity and the planet will still suffer from natural disasters, rising sea levels, and melting ice and glaciers for "many decades".

Also according to the report, during periods of excessive heat, the number of sick or dead people will increase due to climate change and extreme weather events. Along with that, hunger and thirst will occur due to reduced food production and water scarcity, the economy will be damaged and many species will be at risk of extinction.

Citing the recent flash flood disaster on the Nepal-China border, Mr. Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter (UK) and co-author of the report, predicted that the world will witness many similar events.

UNEP also warns of "tipping points", which can cause irreversible consequences, leading to a series of chain impacts such as ice melting in West Antarctica and Greenland, the loss of the Amazon rainforest... "Some areas will no longer be insurable, or even uninhabitable," the report said.

With traditional methods such as planting trees to absorb CO2, scientists point out that even with maximum planting, this solution can only help reduce global temperatures by one-tenth of a degree Celsius.

Faced with an irreversible situation, the United Nations calls on policymakers to "prepare and orientate for a future" where temperatures exceed safe thresholds, then adjust the roadmap to cool the world. Countries need to stop using fossil fuels and develop methods to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial production activities.

Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, likened humanity's rising emissions to an "out of control train". The UN's scenario is not feasible as it requires this "train" to stop quickly and turn around. And Bill Hare, CEO of the climate organization Climate Analytics, said that UNEP did a good job of describing the hole that "humanity is digging for itself", but could not point out a possible way out of this situation.