In the list announced by Likud, 124 names competed to get one of the seats to enter the parliament. According to Israeli political sources, approximately 40 of them are current ministers and members of parliament. However, when the number of seats lost by Likud in the polls and the quotas allocated for Netanyahu were put on top of each other, the remaining gaps in the electable ranks decreased significantly, turning the struggle within the party into a "seat grab" race. While Ynet, one of Israel's important media institutions, announced that nearly 140 thousand voters will choose among 124 candidates, i24NEWS reported that the race was intense among more than 120 candidates, especially for electable positions.
However, before the ballot box was held, a significant part of the list had already been shaped by Netanyahu. Last month, the Likud Central Committee gave Netanyahu the authority to directly name eight names in the first 29 places; Later, this number increased to nine quotas. When Netanyahu's own first place and the guaranteed place reserved for Defense Minister Israel Katz are taken into account, it is seen that Netanyahu's control over the first 30 places reaches approximately one third. Among the rows that Netanyahu controls are the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th, 26th and 29th rows.
OBJECTION 'THIS IS NOT DEMOCRACY'
This is where the debate started. Likud members, on the other hand, react to the de facto blocking of at least 10 rows by Netanyahu, vocally stating that the determination of so many rows by a single person's decision is incompatible with democracy within the party. Despite this, the party's leading figures preferred to describe the primary election as a "feast of democracy" despite Netanyahu's increasing control. Speaking to the Times of Israel, Energy Minister Eli Cohen argued that most of the top positions are determined by the members.
Cohen stated that he considers Netanyahu's struggle in Israeli politics almost as a religious duty. Cohen explained that he believes Netanyahu has a special mission to fight the "deep state" and Democratic administrations in the United States. While criticism against Netanyahu is growing across the country due to the Gaza war, the hostage file, the October 7 security failure and the harsh polarization in domestic politics, the fact that the support for the Prime Minister within the Likud base is still quite strong stands out as one of the fundamental paradoxes in Israeli politics.
NETANYAHU ALSO WANTED TO CANCEL THE PRIMARY ELECTION
News in Israel revealed that Netanyahu initially brought up the option of completely canceling the primary election. While the primary election was held after discussions in Likud's party court and party organs, Netanyahu instead managed to gain significant control by increasing the number of direct quotas on the candidate list. According to some political sources in the region, among the names that Netanyahu has placed in the safe ranks are politicians who support occupation and genocide, such as Israel Katz, Gideon Sa'ar and Haim Katz; It was stated that some of these names may have difficulty obtaining a safe place in internal party polls through direct primaries.
Behind Netanyahu's quota move is not only the calculation of protecting his allies within the party. Netanyahu is worried that some hard-right figures, who are very popular among Likud members, will alienate center-right and undecided voters in the general election. It is considered that although names such as Tally Gotliv, Shlomo Karhi and May Golan have high support among the party base, they may not find the same response in the wider electorate. For this reason, it is stated that Netanyahu is trying to partially balance his candidate list with names more suitable for central voters. However, there are many politicians who say that Netanyahu will surrender to the far right regarding the candidates and that they are helpless on this issue.
LIKUD MEMBER AND LIKUD VOTERS ARE NOT IN THE SAME PLACE
The real problem is the distance between the party members and the political expectations of the large electorate that voted for Likud. According to research by Agam Labs at the Hebrew University, published on August 11, 54.9 percent of Likud voters want a government closer to the center than the government dominated by Netanyahu's current far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. By contrast, only about a third of registered Likud members who voted in the primary favor a center-right government. Approximately two-thirds of party members support the continuation of a political line similar to the current coalition.
One of the topics where this separation is most visible is the military service issue of ultra-Orthodox Jews. The prolongation of the Gaza war and the fact that the Israeli army faced heavy manpower pressure during the occupation and genocide that it has been carrying out in Palestine, especially in Gaza, has made the exemption of Haredim from military service one of the most sensitive political issues of the country. According to Agam Labs data, while more than 80 percent of Likud voters want to increase the recruitment rate of ultra-Orthodox people, the proportion of party members who support this view remains at approximately 65 percent.
FROM 32 TO 20-24: NETANYAHU'S SHINING SPACE
For Likud, the math isn't very bright either. While the party is currently represented with 32 deputies in the 120-seat Israeli Parliament Knesset, the latest polls indicate that it can win 20 to 24 deputies in the October 27 elections. In some studies reported by survey companies in Israel, the band is between 22-24. If this situation happens, Likud may lose approximately one-third of its current number of seats. Therefore, even getting a good place in the primary election is no longer a guarantee of entering the parliament. When Netanyahu's quotas are added, it seems inevitable that some current ministers and MPs will be left off the list or relegated to unelectable positions.
Netanyahu's personal intervention brought about allegations of showdown within the party. There were reports in the Israeli press that the Prime Minister wanted Economy Minister Nir Barkat and some internal party opponents, who had opposed him in the past, to drop in the rankings. Netanyahu's son, Yair Netanyahu, also called for not voting for MP David Bitan, who was at odds with his father from time to time, in his social media post on the election day. Bitan, on the other hand, had previously argued that the wide quota authority given to Netanyahu would push down the current MPs and bring names affiliated with the Prime Minister to the parliament.
On the day of the primary election, the tension within the party also showed itself at the polls. Tally Gotliv called on party members to be careful, claiming that "fake ballot papers" without her name were used in some centers. Ynet reported that a complaint was made in Petah Tikva about the ballot papers in which the number of Minister of Agriculture Avi Dichter was written incorrectly. While other candidates were making last-minute calls for votes on social media, Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana started the election morning in the synagogue; Almost all of the candidates tried to mobilize the base by sharing images of themselves going to the polls.
PARTICIPATION IN THE BALLOTS REMAINED AT 53 PERCENT
With the closing of the ballot boxes, the participation rate was announced as approximately 53.5 percent. This rate was approximately 4.5 points below the Likud primaries in 2022. While the activity in the voting centers in Jerusalem attracted attention, the fact that the ballot boxes remained largely calm in Tel Aviv also attracted the attention of the Israeli press. Considering that the average turnout rate in Likud's last three primaries was approximately 57 percent, the fact that the ballot interest among the party base did not increase despite the toughness of this year's race was also a matter of comment.
The October 27 elections will be the first general election to be held in Israel after the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent wars on the Gaza occupation, Lebanon and Iran fronts. While Netanyahu's security leadership image was seriously damaged after October 7, the course of the Gaza occupation, the hostage issue, the military service of the ultra-Orthodox, reform attempts to limit the powers of the judiciary and relations with the USA are among the main files of the election campaign. Moreover, according to research, approximately 20 percent of Israeli voters are still undecided; Analysts point out that a significant portion of them consists of voters who voted for Likud in the past but have moved away from Netanyahu.
While the Likud primaries witnessed the struggle of 124 candidates to enter the parliament, on the other hand, they revealed a much bigger question: Will Netanyahu be able to re-convince the entire Israeli electorate, even if he keeps the base of his party, on which he has built absolute weight for years, on his side? Surveys indicate that this is not possible.
In the Likud ballot box, members chose candidates; But Netanyahu determined most of the critical positions on the list before the ballot box even opened. For this reason, the race on August 17 was perhaps one of the most ironic primaries in Likud history, as the Israeli press pointed out: There was a ballot box, there was competition, there were 124 candidates; However, the keys to the most valuable seats on the list were still in "Bibi"'s pocket.
