There is no match. The right is going to overwhelm on November 29, except for a debacle at Alberto Núñez Feijóo's own door. The internal polls managed by the PSOE predict around 190 deputies for the sum of PP and Vox, and those of Genoa raise that figure above the barrier of 200. That Pedro Sánchez continues to govern is not that it is difficult, "it is that it is humanly impossible", as a leader close to the president recognizes. The only thing left for Sánchez, therefore, is to push the machine to its maximum and sit back and wait for one last "miracle."
So what is the strategy of the socialists? To come first, which they see as feasible, and for Vox to gain so much weight that Feijóo arrives at La Moncloa as if he were climbing Golgotha. Everything will revolve, therefore, around the result obtained by Vox, which "feeds back" with the PSOE to sandwich the favorite, as sources from both parties acknowledge. The key to what is at stake in these elections was given on Monday by José María Aznar, at the Letras conference in Seville: "A PP with 140 seats and Vox with 60 is not the same as a PP with 165 and Vox with 35. The second formula allows us to face the country's problems, the first, I am not clear about."
When Aznar speaks, the right listens. And it coincides. In the PP and the PSOE they know that there is an essential psychological bar: 70 deputies. If Santiago Abascal exceeds that threshold, he will already be in the dialectic of sorpasso for 2030, which is the date marked in red at the Bambú headquarters. And the legislature will be "almost impossible," sources from the main opposition party acknowledge.
Vox's plan is to sow now to harvest in four years, as this newspaper advanced: «Lepenize us? If it's to win, yes. If it is to reach 35% and govern, lepenization is welcome," said one of the main spokespersons for the party. «We believe that we can govern from 30-35%, and that is the result we aspire to in 2031 [now, 2030]; “We know what we are doing,” said the same source.
Before reaching this point, the PP still has to achieve that the demoscopic majority translates into real votes. And, above all, convince the electorate that the alternative that Feijóo represents is solid and will be profound. That he does not need Vox to pull him to get to where his voters demand in matters such as immigration, security, taxation or in the defense of territorial integrity. So in the 53 days left until the elections, the PP has proposed to "lead" the campaign, to prevent the PSOE from being reborn and for Vox to continue raising its expectations without having to get off the bus.
In the PSOE they invoke victory as the aspirational axis of the campaign. It is not only its objective, it is its main message: to mobilize the left-wing electorate on the back of the hypothesis that they can win. In Ferraz they believe that the PP would "implode" if it came second with a very strong Vox. And that Feijóo's leadership would be called into question. In such a turbulent scenario, Sánchez could wait in the opposition. The survey that the president commissioned - and that convinced him to press the red button for the electoral advance - points to a possible socialist victory, but with its partners sunk, so PP and Vox would easily add the majority.
Of course, with 15 seats in dispute. A gap enough for Sánchez, who has accumulated a fertile archive of somersaults without a net, to jump into the void of 29-N. The internal survey of the PSOE, based on no less than 7,000 interviews, places the socialists on the verge of 130 seats, according to Ferraz sources. That is, three deputies ahead of the PP, which would be around 126. So far, a clear variation from the trend of recent months. But the most important thing, the real underlying movement, is that Vox would skyrocket to almost 80 deputies.
