Nationalist parties lead elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to preliminary results

The three nationalist parties that dominate politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina are emerging as the winners of the general elections held this Sunday, according to the preliminary results of the partial recount of the votes, reported the Electoral Commission of the Balkan country, reports Efe. In the elections for the tripartite presidency of the country, current members Denis Beirovic, who holds office as a representative of the Bosniak (Muslim) community, and Zeljka Cvijanovic, representing the Bosnian Serbs, lead the count, along with the Croatian nationalist candidate Darijana Filipovic, who would replace Zeljko Komsic.

Participation has been much lower than that of the 2022 general elections: 41.48% compared to 51.45% four years ago. The elections have been conditioned by economic difficulties, the massive youth exodus and concern about corruption, while some of the main political leaders have revived the ethnic tensions that have kept the country divided since the war fought between 1992 and 1995, and which left more than 100,000 dead and millions displaced.

Around 3.4 million voters were called to elect the three members of the country's multi-ethnic Presidency (Bosniak, Bosnian Serb and Croat Serb), the parliamentarians of the National Assembly and the leaders of the institutions of the two territorial entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (with a Muslim majority) and the Republika Srpska (dominated by ethnic Serbs).

For Aida Daguda, of the Center for the Promotion of Civil Society, a Bosnian NGO dedicated to promoting citizen rights, one of the biggest challenges facing her country today is "the increasingly widespread conviction that individual participation cannot generate real change. Although this is especially visible among young people, it is not limited to them." Daguda believes that "strengthening democratic culture is a gradual process, but it begins by helping people see themselves as active participants in building their own future."

Bosnia has a complex institutional framework created through the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, mediated by the United States, with the purpose of managing the ethnic divisions between Muslim Bosnians, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats that caused the war.

"These elections have revolved around trust. Many people are wondering whether to stay in the country, participate and believe if a change still makes some sense," adds Daguda, who points out the day-to-day challenges faced with ethnic separations: "From floods and forest fires to the cost of living and an increasingly uncertain global environment. People are looking for leaders capable of responding to these challenges with solvency and vision of the future; however, many citizens do not see that perspective reflected in the current political landscape," he highlights.

The prominence of Milorad Dodik

The attention of the election day was drawn to a politician with a marked pro-Russian line who, although he did not appear on the ballots, dominated the campaign and stoked the divisions that aroused fear of a new cycle of instability, reports the Ap agency. The Serbian Milorad Dodik, the former separatist and nationalist president of the Republika Srpska, was disqualified from holding public office after being condemned for disobeying decisions of the international High Representative, in charge of supervising compliance with Dayton.

Dodik declared this Sunday that his party retains power, reports Afp. "I declare that we have won," Dodik stated before his followers in Banja Luka, capital of the Republika Srpska, ensuring that his party retains power in the entity, as well as the Serbian seat in the collegiate Presidency of the country.

The former president has just returned from a trip to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "It is the common thread of the campaign. Its prominence has grown rather than diminished," analyst Adnan Cerimagic, from the European Stability Initiative (ESI) think tank in Berlin, told EL MUNDO. "He has presented the 90s as a clash of civilizations in which the Serbs defended Christian Europe against Islam, he has stated that Bosnia is not a place for Serbs and he has once again demanded the dissolution of the Dayton agreements and the State itself," highlights this expert.

During the campaign closing rally on Friday, he assured his supporters that Bosnia "is dead." "It is an unviable country. It lacks any sense," said Dodik at the event, attended by the Russian ambassador, Igor Khalabukov. Analyst Dragan Bursac told AP that, even without appearing on the ballot for the first time in almost three decades, Dodik "is still in charge. He is everywhere." "It is clear that these measures to remove him from political life are ineffective, and he is taking advantage of them to his advantage," he commented.

Although Bosnia has remained relatively calm in recent years, part of its ruling class has fueled friction between the Bosnian community (predominantly Muslim) and the Serb and Croat populations. Bosnian Serb representatives like Dodik have promoted the secession of their entity from the country as a whole, raising concerns among Western powers about a possible overflow of tensions.

Bosnia, one of the countries with the lowest per capita income in Europe, is still struggling to recover three decades after the war that broke out in 1992, when it declared independence from the former Yugoslavia dominated by Serbs. The Bosnian Serb militias took up arms to proclaim their own State and annex Serbia.

The country formally aspires to join the European Union, although the accession process remains stalled. "The European Union has been almost completely absent from this campaign, which is a drastic contrast with 2022, when it had a decisive weight," says Cerimagic. In parallel, the lack of economic opportunities has pushed hundreds of thousands of young people to emigrate during the last decade. Since the 2023 census, the country has lost more than 20% of its population.