Preliminary results give Flávio Bolsonaro an advantage over Lula in Brazilian elections

The first preliminary results of the presidential elections in Brazil show Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, as the winner against the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. When the count is at a scant 12%, Bolsonaro obtains 51% of the ballots, compared to 40.7% for Lula. In the event that one of the two contenders exceeded 50%, there would be no need for the second round to be held on October 25.

It is true that almost 159 million Brazilians have been called to vote this Sunday in Brazil, but it would be between incomplete and naive to believe that this ends the matter: the presidential elections in the main power in Latin America are the scene of a power struggle with Donald Trump as a special interest and other presidents of the region, including Javier Milei, willing to do anything to prevent Lula's re-election.

The veteran leftist leader is well aware of this, and when voting this Sunday in the outskirts of Sao Paulo he insisted for the umpteenth time on the main idea of ​​his campaign: "The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime or barbarism, between progress and regression."

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and the strongest candidate on the right, voted very early in Rio de Janeiro and was forceful in his message: "I want to liberate the Brazilian people."

The latest polls have marked a stagnation of Lula, who will turn 81 this month, and a rise of Bolsonaro, 45, in the face of a super electoral Sunday in which 27 governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate are also elected.

If the result does not offer the major surprise of one of the two main candidates reaching 50% to win in the first round, Brazilians will return to the polls in three weeks, on the 25th of this month, to choose between the two and decide who will be installed as of January 5 in the Planalto Palace.

Looking ahead to this second round, the polls already show a technical tie, with very slight advantages for Lula or Bolsonaro, depending on the poll in question.

Until a few months ago, Trump said it openly: he wanted the Bolsonaros to return to power. After two meetings with Lula and renewed disagreements, the White House tenant still wants that, but he handles it with less brutality in public.

"President Trump has been seeking influence since last year with the tariffs," said Brian Winter, a Brazil specialist and director of the international politics publication Americas Quarterly. "But now he is using more subtle words. He was asked directly about the Brazilian elections and he did not give clear support to Flávio Bolsonaro. But the United States wants to influence, it sees Brazil as the largest and most fundamental piece in the region. It is the most important prize."

Trump uses American power by combining abusive tariffs, his influence over the owners of social networks and specific operations such as locally fueling the smear campaign against the STF, financed by the State Department. Or the closure of the embassy in Brasilia and all the consulates in Brazil starting last Friday due to a bomb threat whose entity does not seem to have been important.

In Trump's anti-Lula scheme, Milei, who shares a border with Brazil and is the battering ram, the player on the field, plays a fundamental role. In football terms, the one who drops to the ground and puts a strong leg in the fight for the ball without fear of the consequences. This translated politically into the Argentine president's trip to Sao Paulo at the end of July to support Bolsonaro with unprecedented strength and aggressiveness at the launch of his campaign.

Brazil also has the second largest reserve of rare minerals in the world, lots of oil, water and food. If Lula wins, those resources will be controlled by the country. If Bolsonaro wins, everything indicates that the United States will have a decisive influence in the use and priority to supply these resources. The Shield of the Americas, a military and security cooperation alliance led by the United States, convened virtually all Latin American presidents in September in New York. The one from Brazil was missing. Depending on what Brazilians decide, this could soon no longer be the case.