Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro in a polarized presidential election with high rejection and promises of change

President Lula (PT), 80, reaches his seventh and probably last presidential contest this Sunday (4) with the challenge of overcoming the fatigue accumulated in his 44 years of electoral history.

In a polarized election, one of your campaign's tasks is to convince voters to give you more trust, fueling the desire for continuity with promises of change.

This mission was expressed in the president's message on his last TV program. "You want life to improve. Me too. But change has direction. And mine is forward. Because changing backwards, we've already seen what happened", said the current president.

Allies assessed even before the start of the campaign that the PT member, a protagonist in politics since the 1980s, would have as his main obstacle a type of voter fatigue.

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Lula faces the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) who, despite being a professional politician in Rio de Janeiro since 2003, sells himself as a novelty on the national scene.

Datafolha research released this Saturday (3) shows the two technically tied, with a chance of the dispute ending in the first round. Lula registers 45% of valid voting intentions, compared to 42% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Lula's campaign sought to increase the electorate's rejection of Flávio. One of the topics explored was the Dark Horse case – the PL candidate was caught, in exchange of messages, asking for money from the owner of the extinct Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, for a film about his father.

The president brought back to the public debate cases that link the PL candidate to the militias in Rio de Janeiro. PT members echoed speculation that their opponent would strip Our Lady of Aparecida of the title of patron saint of Brazil, a rumor that wore down Flávio and renewed the spirit of Lula's allies with just a few days to go before the first round.

Lulistas also criticized their opponent because of their proximity to the President of the United States, Donald Trump. The discourse of national sovereignty was accompanied by fear of foreign interference in the election.

Despite these efforts, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro reach the end of the first round with high and close levels of rejection — around 45%, according to Datafolha released last Thursday (1st).

Lula's campaign began with an attempt to improve the government's approval rating. The first advertising pieces had a lighter tone.

After Flávio Bolsonaro gained ground in the polls, the speeches became more incisive against his opponent, and the comparison between the Lula and Jair Bolsonaro governments became constant.

Course corrections throughout the campaign caused clashes around Lula. In addition to exchanges of accusations about the lack of campaign material, such as pamphlets, stickers and flags, and controversies about the government's plan, there were also disagreements about the actions of the administration itself.

Team coordinator, PT president, Edinho Silva, had a heated discussion with the chief minister of Secom, Sidônio Palmeira, about the ban on betting. According to reports, the two spent at least a week without meeting in the final stretch.

In the last weeks of the campaign, Lula launched government actions with electoral appeal – such as the 15% increase in Bolsa Família, the ban on betting and a third phase of the Desenrola program, aimed at people in debt. The measures target low-income audiences, who traditionally support Lula, and conservative sectors that condemn gambling addiction.

The candidate for reelection defended the end of the 6x1 work schedule, a project that is being processed in the Senate and should be put on the agenda by President Davi Alcolumbre (União) on Tuesday (6); promised to universalize Pé-de-Meia, a scholarship program for high school students; and proposed maintaining the policy of increasing the minimum wage, one of the PT's showcases.

The PT member also emphasized the fight against violence against women. The first lady, Janja Lula da Silva, played a leading role in this and other aspects of the campaign. Female voters are considered essential to the re-election effort.

The president's emissaries in the economic area spread the message that, if re-elected, he will adopt measures to contain the increase in public debt. Lula himself promised, in two meetings with businesspeople and bankers, to adjust the government's accounts and overcome the suspicions of the productive sector and the financial market.

In the police field, Lula's allies admit that he suffered wear and tear because of the Banco Master scandal. Lula is not cited or investigated, but the case affected ministers of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) such as Alexandre de Moraes, Dias Toffoli and Kassio Nunes Marques.

The political damage, say allies, occurs due to the proximity he has cultivated with the Supreme Court throughout this term.

The revelations led Lula to publicly demand investigations. The PT member also started to defend that Supreme Court ministers have a defined mandate and committed himself to a reform of the Judiciary.

The passage that caused the president the most wear and tear, however, were the calls between two people close to him to lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, who was being investigated for allegedly participating in the INSS pension embezzlement scheme.

Three investigations were opened against Lula's eldest son, Fábio Luis, known in the news as Lulinha. Marco Aurélio Santana Ribeiro, former chief of staff of the president nicknamed Marcola, left the campaign after revelations that the lobbyist paid his expenses.

Allies assess, however, that the main risk to the re-election campaign is the electorate's perception of prices and the population's debt levels. Both issues were constantly explored by Flávio Bolsonaro, as well as public security.

The president stated in internal conversations that he saw difficulties in expanding his electorate in a possible second round. The reason is that none of the other relevant candidates should support him in a dispute against Flávio Bolsonaro.

The fact that he is the only left-wing candidate scoring in the polls is also used as an argument for Lula to have withdrawn from televised debates. He did not go to any of these appointments, with the argument that he would become the target of all his competitors at the same time.

Despite being elected three times, Lula sought to adopt an anti-system discourse, applying this label to the economic elite, which he would oppose in actions such as the taxation of high-income people.

There was a concerted effort to introduce Lula to young people. Not as a three-term president, but as someone facing powerful interests. One of the measures in this sense was to recover his past as a union leader, when he led strikes during the military dictatorship.

The choice of the Vila Euclides stadium, in São Bernardo do Campo (SP), as the stage for the first act of the campaign was part of this tactic. Lula emerged into the national public debate around 50 years ago in that same place.

At 80 years old, the PT member promises that this will be his last election. The first was in 1982, when he ran for governor of São Paulo for the then newly founded PT and lost. Afterwards he was a constituent deputy, lost three elections for president and won three others.