President Lula (PT) leads voting intentions among younger and older voters, while he is technically tied with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the three intermediate age groups, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3).
Among voters aged 16 to 24, Lula has 46%, against 32% for Flávio. In the age group of 60 or over, the president scores 47%, compared to 38% for the senator. The margins of error are five and three percentage points, respectively, plus or minus. The differences are outside the technical tie in the two groups.
The percentages refer to the total votes in the stimulated first round scenario, in which respondents receive a list of candidates. This base includes blank, null or none answers and undecided answers.
Among voters aged 25 to 34, Lula has 38%, and Flávio, 43%. From 35 to 44 years old, the percentages are 39% and 44%, respectively. The margin is four points in each group, which constitutes a technical draw in both groups.
Among those aged 45 to 59, the president scores 42%, against 40% for the senator, also in a technical tie. The margin of error is three points.
In the electorate as a whole, Lula maintained the 42% of the previous survey, while Flávio fluctuated from 38% to 40%. The two are technically tied, considering the national margin of error, plus or minus two percentage points.
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 4%, while Renan Santos (Missão) and Augusto Cury (Avante) each have 3%. The other candidates did not reach 1%. Whites, null or none make up 4%, and those who are undecided are 3%.
In valid votes, which exclude white, null and undecided votes, Lula has 45%, and Flávio, 42%, also in a technical tie.
Lula leads among voters with a monthly family income of up to two minimum wages, with 50%, against 32% for Flávio. The margin of error in this group is two percentage points.
The senator has an advantage in the two bands above this level. Among those with an income of more than two to five minimum wages, it is 47%, compared to 35% for the president. In the range above five minimum wages, it has 49%, against 35% for Lula. The margins are three and four points, respectively.
In terms of education, the PT member leads among voters with primary education, with 56%, compared to 28% for his opponent. The margin of error is three points.
Flávio is ahead among those with secondary education, with 44%, against Lula's 37%, and among those with higher education, by 45% to 38%. The margins are two and three points, respectively, and the differences are outside the technical tie in the two groups.
Among Catholics, Lula leads by 51% to 34%. Among evangelicals, Flávio has an advantage, with 55%, against 25% for the PT member. The error margins are two and three points, respectively.
The PT member also appears ahead among women, with 46%, compared to 35% for his opponent. Among men, Flávio leads by 44% to 39%. The margin of error is two points in each group.
Lula leads in the Northeast, with 59%, against 28% for Flávio. In the South, the senator has an advantage, by 51% to 30%. The error margins are three and four points, respectively.
In the Southeast, Flávio scores 42%, and Lula, 38%, in a technical tie at the limit of the two-point margin. In the Central-West/North grouping, the senator has 42%, compared to 37% for the president, also in a technical tie, with a margin of four points.
In metropolitan regions, Lula leads by 42% to 37%. In the interior, the president has 43%, and Flávio, 41%, in a technical tie. The margin of error is two points in each cut.
Second round
In the total sample, Lula has 47%, and Flávio, 46%, in the second round simulation, in a technical tie.
The president also leads among the youngest and oldest in this scenario. Among voters aged 16 to 24, he has 52%, against 40% for Flávio, with a margin of five points. In the age group of 60 and over, the score is 51% to 42%, with a margin of three points.
Flávio has an advantage among voters aged 25 to 34, with 51%, compared to 41% for Lula. The margin of error is four points.
From 35 to 44 years old, the senator has 50%, and the president, 42%, in a technical tie at the limit of the four-point margin. Among those aged 45 to 59, Lula scores 47%, against 46% for Flávio, also in a technical tie, with a margin of three points.
Datafolha interviewed 4,006 voters aged 16 or over in 122 municipalities on October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research was commissioned by Folha and TV Globo and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-01708/2026.
