Emmanuel Macron culminates this week his European projection with the Space Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris, after his end-of-summer tour of Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. His external image, as a champion of the "strategic awakening" of the old continent, however, contrasts strongly with his low popularity at home: only 20% of French people claim to have "confidence" in their president at this point and 75% disqualify his work in the final stretch of his mandate, according to a recent survey by Elabe for Les Échos.
Macron's unstoppable downhill climb, propelled by his push for pension reform and by the early elections of 2024 that caused him to lose his parliamentary majority, has in fact become the "ballast" faced by the two top contenders to inherit the political center. Its former prime ministers Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal sail at a more than considerable distance from the favorite for the 2027 presidential elections, the leader of the National Rally Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen flies alone with 36% of the vote's preferences, compared to 14.5% for Philippe and 7.5 for Attal, both surpassed by the leader of La Francia Insumisa Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15%) in the latest Ipsos/BVA survey for Le Parisien. The polarization of the French electorate is such that the hypothesis of a head-to-head between the extreme right and the extreme left, Le Pen against Mélenchon, is increasingly likely in the second round on May 2.
Macron's regretful shadow is therefore projected over his possible "successors", despite all the president's attempts to shore up his European vocation and even to become the post-Brexit bridge between the United Kingdom and the EU, after his recent meeting in London with the new Prime Minister Andy Burham, with whom he promised to "reinforce the special relationship."
With eight months left until his farewell, Macron is desperately seeking to delve into the European legacy of his mandate, despite the recent frictions with Germany (which have been evident in the run-up to this week's space summit) and his lukewarm stance in the Ceuta crisis, offering "solidarity and support" to Pedro Sánchez, and distancing himself from the 22 EU countries that openly criticized his immigration policy in the initiative promoted by Giorgia Meloni.
The president's last summer return after almost a decade in the Elysée, has not served to turn the curve of unpopularity, as also certified these days by the YouGov barometer for the Huffington Post, which also gives him an approval level of 20%, the same as he had in August. Macron remains at this point the second most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic, behind the socialist François Hollande.
The candidates to succeed him began a calculated demarcation some time ago. Gabriel Attal, sacrificed after the fiasco of the early elections of 2024, has come to openly admit: "I do not understand some of the president's decisions." Edouard Philippe, who remained at the helm during the yellow vest crisis, even demanded early presidential elections in the face of the feeling of ungovernability that has settled over the last two years in Fancia.
Despite his disagreements with his mentor, Attal continues to lead Renacimiento, the latest reincarnation of the party created in the image and likeness of Macron under the name of La República En Marcha. Philippe heads his own centrist party, Horizons, with which he revalidated his victory as mayor of Le Havre in March (later tarnished by the corruption and influence peddling scandal, still pending trial, that has marred his campaign).
Faced with the confusion of the electorate due to the growing fragmentation of the political center, Philippe himself has taken a step forward demanding "the creation of a new party or a new confederation of parties." "This will imply the need to designate unique candidates in each constituency," he added, starting with a unified centrist candidacy for the presidential elections.
"If we want a political majority, we will need a program and a common motto," warned Philippe, supported among others by the Minister of Justice Gerard Darmanin, who justified his support by claiming that he is "the captain who will bring us to a safe harbor," in the face of the threat of shipwreck due to the impetuous advance of Marine Le Pen and the National Rally.
Unlike Attal, perceived as more progressive, Philippe seeks "a political recomposition based on the regrouping of the right and the center", in a challenge also launched at the leader of The Republicans, Bruno Retailleau, determined to also mark distances with the extreme right.
