Economist Mahfi Eğilmez made evaluations regarding the foreign exchange open position of companies in his article published on his personal blog. Eğilmez stated that a company's foreign currency debt does not pose a risk on its own, but that the real risk arises when foreign currency liabilities exceed foreign currency income.
Eğilmez stated that if a company has 30 million dollars of foreign currency income against its 100 million dollars of foreign currency debt, there will be a net foreign exchange deficit of 70 million dollars, adding that when the exchange rate rises, the Turkish Lira equivalent of the debt will increase and if the revenues do not increase at the same rate, the company's balance sheet may be negatively affected.
'IT MAY TURN INTO A MACROECONOMIC RISK'
Eğilmez said that foreign exchange risk, which may be manageable for a single company, can turn into a macroeconomic risk throughout the economy if many companies carry open positions at the same time.
Pointing out that exchange rate increases can disrupt company balance sheets, increase credit risk and have negative effects on investments and employment, Eğilmez reminded that Türkiye experienced the effects of a similar mechanism in the 2001 crisis.
REMINDED THE BANKING RISK IN THE 2001 CRISIS
Stating that the foreign exchange open position of the banking sector was an important element of fragility in the 2001 crisis, Eğilmez stated that according to BRSA data, the foreign exchange position deficit of banks was 15.2 billion dollars as of February 19, 2001.
Eğilmez stated that the sharp depreciation in the Turkish Lira after the introduction of the floating exchange rate system had a negative impact on the balance sheets of banks, and added that high interest rates, liquidity problems and structural problems in the banking sector also played a role in deepening the crisis.
Eğilmez evaluated one of the lessons to be learned from the 2001 crisis as the fact that although foreign exchange risk accumulates in balance sheets, it can spread throughout the economy through the financial system along with exchange rate shocks.
NET FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEFICIT OF THE REAL SECTOR IS 210.8 BILLION DOLLARS
Eğilmez stated that today the banking system has a different structure than the 2001 period, but this time the foreign exchange open position of real sector companies has reached a remarkable level.
According to CBRT's July 2026 data, real sector companies have foreign exchange liabilities of $401.2 billion against $190.4 billion in foreign currency assets. Accordingly, the sector's net foreign exchange position deficit is at the level of 210.8 billion dollars.
'IT IS NOT A CRISIS INDICATOR ON IT'
Eğilmez emphasized that the net deficit of 210.8 billion dollars should not be considered as a crisis indicator alone.
Eğilmez stated that companies' foreign exchange income, export performance, foreign currency assets, maturity of debts and tools used to hedge against exchange rate risk should be evaluated together, and noted that the foreign exchange deficit of the real sector is an indicator that should be closely monitored.
According to Eğilmez, the main risk is related to the companies' ability to convert and pay their foreign currency debts in the face of a possible increase in the exchange rate.
