In his speech at the 21st MÜSİAD Expo International Fair and the 29th IBF International Business Forum Opening Ceremony, where Anadolu Agency is the Global Communication Partner, Vice President Yılmaz said that the global economy and trade showed a fluctuating performance under the shadow of geopolitical tensions, increasing protectionism and green and digital transformations.
Stating that the war between Israel/USA and Iran continues to put downward pressure on global goods and services trade expectations for 2026, increase logistics costs, and creates inflationary pressure on commodity prices, especially energy, Yılmaz stated that the increasing protectionist tendency in global trade draws attention in the background of these developments.
While the trend in question leads to structural changes in global supply chains, Yılmaz emphasized that countries are strengthening their tendency to "supply from nearby countries" and "supply from countries that are politically and geopolitically safe and considered allies", which are models based on alliances, and noted that these developments that change the route of trade flows have made bilateral and multilateral trade diplomacy more important than before.
Yılmaz pointed out that international dialogue has become more prominent in the process of combating climate change and adapting to the new digital order, and said, "Despite the negative developments in the global conjuncture, the Turkish economy displays a more positive outlook compared to other countries and regions with its production capacity and export power. Our national income, which was only 239 billion dollars in 2002, exceeded 1.6 trillion dollars in 2025. As of the first half of 2026, our annualized national income will be 1.7 trillion dollars." "It is expected to exceed 1.8 trillion dollars by the end of this year. Similarly, while our per capita income was only 3 thousand 600 dollars in 2002, it has exceeded 18 thousand dollars by the end of this year." he said.
"It is assumed that the growth in our trading partners next year will be above the world growth."
Stating that the risks posed by uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical tensions on energy supply and main trade routes extend delivery times and increase freight and insurance costs, he continued as follows:
"We see a negative picture in the growth rate, especially in Europe, which is our main export market, and in the region we call MENA. Global growth and global trade are decreasing, but unfortunately this effect is higher in Europe, which is our main export market, and in North Africa and the Middle East. Growth and trade are more negatively affected. Especially in the MENA region, a negative 0.5 percent contraction is expected this year, let alone growth in North Africa and the Middle East. These two regions are our main markets. When you add these two regions together, they represent approximately 70 percent of our exports. "In general, the situation with our trade partners is not very bright this year. We expect a growth rate of 1.6 points with our trade partners. When we look at the growth of the countries with which we trade with more than 90 percent, I can say that we are in a difficult year. But the good news is that it is assumed that the growth in our trade partners will be above the world growth next year. I can say that we have a more positive perspective next year due to both the war-related developments and the base effect."
Yılmaz noted that exports demonstrated their resilience despite the significant deterioration in regional and global conditions.
Reminding that goods exports were 36 billion dollars in 2002, Yılmaz said, "We increased this by 7.6 times in the past period, reaching 273.2 billion dollars last year. As of August 2026, our exports reached 280 billion dollars annually. We see this success we achieved in goods exports clearly in service exports. In 2002, our total service exports were only 14 billion dollars. We increased this approximately 9 times, reaching 125 billion dollars." "If we look at the total trade in goods and services, we had exports of goods and services worth 50 billion dollars in 2002. We have increased this by 8 times in 2025 and have broken an all-time record by approaching 400 billion dollars." he said.
Yılmaz stated that efforts are continuing to develop and diversify exports of goods and services with various strategies, aiming to ensure market diversity and develop trade towards different countries, such as distant countries, Islamic countries and African countries.
Stating that they see export supports and export financing instruments as parts of an integral whole that serves a common purpose, Yılmaz noted that in this context, they handled Eximbank supports as a whole with the support of the Ministry of Commerce.
"We aim to make our country one of the production, logistics and trade centers of the global economy."
Vice President Yılmaz stated that protecting domestic production against unfair competition is another area they prioritize, and emphasized that they will continue to reduce dependence on imports and take measures against the damage caused by imports to producers and unfair competition.
Stating that they believe that connectivity is critical, Yılmaz said, "We plan to increase Türkiye's influence in trade flows in the east-west and north-south axes with new railway connections such as the Development Road, the Middle Corridor, and the Zangezur Corridor. Another important agenda of ours is the historical Hejaz Railway route that we are considering. We look at this route with a new perspective, in the conditions of today's world, and we believe that this will make significant contributions to regional stability. We are looking at our ports, logistics centers, industrial zones and "We aim to make our country one of the strong production, logistics and trade centers of the global economy by integrating our railway networks." made his assessment.
Yılmaz stated that he wanted to give a clear and strong message to international investors and that they would take the predictable, transparent, competitive and investor-friendly business environment to better levels during the program period.
"There is a strong political stability in Türkiye"
Noting that they act with the vision of making Istanbul a stronger center in the fields of international financial services, regional fund management, financial technologies, participation finance and sustainable finance, Yılmaz said:
"There is a strong political stability in Türkiye. There is a resilient and experienced leadership. I would like to express that this is very valuable, especially in this period we live in. Leadership is always important, but it is even more important in stormy, difficult times. Turkey is among the lucky countries in this sense. Our macroeconomic foundations are solid as well as our political stability. Look at our budget, a deficit of around 3 percent. It is slightly above, slightly below over the years, but despite the earthquake, our budget deficit is at an extremely manageable level when compared internationally. Our current account deficit is 100 percent." "It has been below 2 percent recently. This year, it will rise slightly above 2 percent due to the impact of energy prices, but it is at manageable levels. When we exclude the effects of the war, we still have a current account deficit below 2 percent. Both net reserves and gross reserves are at a very good level."
"Our macroeconomic foundations are solid, our citizens should not hesitate about this."
Yılmaz stated that CDS, which expresses the country risk premium, has come to lower levels and that there are positive developments compared to the past, and said:
"The banking system is extremely solid, the capital adequacy ratio is high. In short, our macroeconomic foundations are solid, our citizens should not hesitate about this. Recently, we are faced with a problem that has only emerged in a limited area of the capital markets. All necessary administrative and judicial measures have been taken and continue to be taken for this area. Here, I would like to underline that there is no structural problem in our capital markets, we are not faced with a structural problem. We are faced with some specific problems in a limited area, and when we overcome these, our capital markets will be even better than before." "I would like to underline that it will continue on its way in a stronger way, with its structure even stronger."
Stating that they closely follow customs, which is one of the most important tools for facilitating foreign trade, Yılmaz explained that in this context, they continue to develop their physical and technological infrastructure in line with the needs by renewing customs administrations and customs gates, increasing their transaction capacities.
Yılmaz said, "We plan to implement regulations that will increase the contributions of our free zones to green transformation and circular economy by improving their capacities and increasing their effectiveness. With all these envisaged policies, we aim to increase our exports of goods and services to 450 billion dollars, which are around 400 billion dollars today, at the end of the Medium Term Program, that is, in 2029, by increasing competitiveness in foreign trade and strengthening our position as a regional center. By the end of 2029, the public and private sectors will easily achieve this goal with the efforts of all of us." "I wholeheartedly believe that we will reach and surpass it." he said.
Stating that MÜSİAD Expo brought Türkiye's production power together with international buyers, Yılmaz added that the 29th International Business Forum Conference held simultaneously enabled new investments and permanent partnerships.
Deputy Minister of Trade Özgür Volkan Ağar, AK Party Mersin Deputy Nureddin Nebati, Istanbul Governor Davut Gül, MÜSİAD Chairman Burhan Özdemir and guests attended the opening ceremony.
