A maneuver worth around 23.5 billion euros in 2027, with interventions to support families and businesses and coverage that will also come from the financial sector, from cuts to ministries and from games. This is what emerges from the Draft Budgetary Plan (Dpb) 2027 that Italy sent to the European Commission. Banks and insurance companies will be asked to contribute approximately 5 billion euros in 2027 and almost 11 billion overall in the three-year period 2027-2029. The banking sector, however, is against a new outlay, considering that a three-year agreement for 10 billion euros was reached last year.
The ministries will also contribute to the coverage with cuts exceeding one billion euros, while a contribution from the gaming sector is expected. Energy companies, however, would have avoided a new levy after the voluntary price cap on fuel. The use of the national safeguard clause to finance the increased expenditure on defense and energy security remains confirmed. The deficit is forecast at 3.4% of GDP in 2027 and 3.2% in 2028, after falling below the 3% expected this year.
The sending of the Dpb was announced overnight by the Ministry of Economy, with a note. The document was approved on Tuesday by the Council of Ministers and confirms the programmatic objectives of the Public Finance Programmatic Document (DPFP).
"The precise definition of the interventions that will be included in the budget bill soon to be presented to Parliament will take into account the results of the ongoing discussions with the European Authorities aimed at better defining the perimeter of activation of the national safeguard clause", we read in the text sent to Brussels.
The government thus aims to obtain additional margins of flexibility to finance the planned measures. The definitive definition of the maneuver also remains linked to the comparison with the European institutions, while the international scenario, between geopolitical tensions, energy crisis, inflation and pressure on government bonds, requires caution in the management of public finances.
According to the Dpb tables, interventions for families and social spending are worth 0.21% of GDP, around 5 billion euros, and represent the main item of the budget. Fiscal measures are expected to amount to 0.09% of GDP, equal to approximately 2.16 billion, while defense amounts to 0.19% of GDP, corresponding to 4.5 billion. 0.1% of GDP is allocated for healthcare, around 2.4 billion. Support for businesses is worth 0.14%, equal to 3.3 billion, while 0.13%, approximately 3.1 billion, is allocated to infrastructure. For defence, the allocation is lower than the maximum margin of European flexibility, equal to 0.3% of GDP, because a share of 0.1% is already incorporated into the trend forecasts. The additional resources expected for the sector therefore amount to 0.19% of GDP. The resources allocated to fiscal measures, however, may not be sufficient to satisfy all the requests made by the majority. The extension of the Irpef bracket with a 33% rate to incomes up to 60 thousand euros alone would have an estimated cost of 2.7 billion euros, higher than the 2.16 billion overall expected for tax interventions. Other hypotheses on the table include the extension of the flat tax up to 100 thousand euros, the tax exemption of thirteenth wages and salary increases provided for by contractual renewals, as well as a preferential tax regime for young people.
The banks have not yet officially expressed their opinion, but opposition to the request for a new contribution emerges from various sources in the sector. The measure would have been communicated without prior negotiation and without clarifying how the burden will be shared between banking institutions, insurance companies and any other financial companies.
The instrument with which the government intends to obtain the resources has not yet been specified. The hypotheses include a new intervention on DTAs, deferred tax assets, i.e. credits that can produce tax benefits in subsequent years, or the introduction of other measures. Forza Italia has ruled out a levy on extra profits and has asked that the intervention be agreed with the sector. From the League, however, a positive evaluation came: Senator Claudio Borghi defined the document as "a positive signal".
On the measures front, the League aims to introduce the possibility of retiring at 64 for those who have met the required requirements and to reduce taxation for young people to 5% through the flat tax, as reported by the Undersecretary of Labor Claudio Durigon.
The proposals are part of a still open framework, in which the available resources will have to be divided between the various priorities of the majority and the commitments undertaken on the public finances front.
The opposition contests the approach of the maneuver. The president of the senators of the Democratic Party, Francesco Boccia, defined the Dpb as "the account of Meloni's failure", criticizing economic growth and the trend of debt and real wages. The position of Fratelli d'Italia is of an opposite nature: the deputy Giorgio Salvitti accused the opposition of selecting only the most negative data. Angelo Bonelli, a member of the Greens and Left Alliance, instead criticized the greater availability of resources for defense compared to healthcare. The leader of Noi Moderati, Maurizio Lupi, defended the majority's action, indicating as an objective the transformation of available resources into concrete responses for citizens.
