Market raises inflation forecast to 5.22% in 2026

The financial market's projection for official inflation in 2026 rose from 5.01% to 5.22%, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Tuesday (13) by the Central Bank. This was the fourth consecutive increase in the estimate for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

At the same time, the financial market maintained the economic growth forecast at 1.85% and reduced expectations for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of next year, from 13.50% to 13.25% per year.

For 2027, the inflation projection was maintained at 4.30%. In 2028, the estimate fell from 3.80% to 3.79%.

GDP and Selic

The forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained at 1.85% for 2026. For 2027, the expectation remained at 1.40%. In 2028, the estimate went from 1.81% to 1.83%.

The projection for Selic at the end of 2026 fell from 13.50% to 13.25% per year.

Currently, the basic interest rate is 13.75%. For 2027, the estimate was maintained at 12% per year. In 2028, it remained at 10.5%.

The market also reduced the estimate for the dollar for the end of 2026, from R$5.20 to R$5.15. For 2027, it dropped from R$5.28 to R$5.26. In 2028, it remained at R$5.30.

Copom

The disclosure occurs in the context in which the Central Bank has pointed out a gradual slowdown in economic activity and maintenance of inflationary pressures.

In the latest minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), published on September 22, the panel assessed that the effects of high interest rates on credit and demand have been gradually accumulating, but highlighted that inflation expectations remain above the target.

Two days later, with the publication of the Monetary Policy Report (RPM), the BC reduced the growth projection for the economy in 2026 from 2% to 1.8%, reiterating the assessment that inflation should end next year above the target, despite the slowdown observed in price indices in recent months.