The assessment is part of the World Economic Outlook report, in which the Washington-based entity makes forecasts about the entire global economy.
The IMF's forecast for the Brazilian economy is growth of 2.2% for 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 — a downward revision of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, in relation to the projections released by the Fund in July.
According to the IMF, this slowdown in Brazilian economic growth reflects "still restrictive monetary conditions — aimed at returning inflation to target —, the withdrawal of fiscal policy stimuli and global uncertainty."
Since the beginning of the year, the Central Bank has been cutting the economy's basic interest rate — which has already fallen from 15% to 13.75%.
In the most recent minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the Central Bank highlighted that high interest rates in Brazil have caused a slowdown in the economy — but that the rate will continue to fall little by little to prevent the return of inflation.
The latest data on Brazilian GDP confirm this slowdown. The national economy had grown 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
But the most recent data from IBGE show that GDP lost strength in the second quarter of 2026, with an increase of 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, below the 1.1% increase recorded in the first quarter.
The IMF forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are more optimistic than those for the Brazilian market. The most recent Focus Bulletin, from the Central Bank, — dated October 2 — shows that Brazilian market agents believe that Brazilian economic growth will be 1.85% this year and 1.4% in 2027.
For the fourth consecutive week, growth forecasts for the Brazilian economy fell within the Focus medians.
The growth projected for the Brazilian economy by the IMF is slightly below that forecast for Latin America, which is 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
In Brazil, the IMF expects inflation to fall but unemployment to rise.
The IMF predicts that Brazilian inflation will fall from 5% last year to 4.4% this year and 4.1% in 2027. The unemployment rate would rise from 6% in 2025 to 6.2% this year and 6.8% in 2027.
Again, the IMF's forecasts seem more positive than those for the Brazilian market. According to Focus, Brazil would close 2026 and 2027 with inflation of 5.01% and 4.3% respectively.
The rest of the world would grow at a faster pace than Brazil, according to the Fund's projection: 3.4% this year and 3.6% in 2027.
According to the IMF, the global economy is "resilient under pressure" — which is the name of the report.
The world today faces several economic challenges: high inflation — which is expected to reach 4.7% on the global average this year and then fall to 4.1% in 2027 —, an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, a reassessment of expectations linked to artificial intelligence, trade tensions between countries and fiscal problems in several governments.
"On the other hand, a stronger push in AI investments and AI-driven productivity gains, or a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, could strengthen growth," the IMF says.
According to the IMF, global economic activity has remained resilient despite the war in the Middle East, supported by the adaptation of the private sector and robust investments in artificial intelligence.
"However, inflation is rising, the disparity between economies benefiting from the technological boom cycle or favorable terms of trade and those facing higher import costs and weaker demand is widening," says the IMF.
The Fund also states that food and energy prices have been rising in the last five years, eroding families' purchasing power and increasing inequality and poverty.
The IMF argues that the public policies that worked best to deal with these imbalances were income support for economically vulnerable families.
The IMF's forecast of slower growth in Brazil in 2027 is in line with what many Brazilian analysts have already pointed out.
Economists interviewed by BBC News Brasil last month were already anticipating slower growth for the second half of this year and for 2027, with the loss of strength of the fiscal stimuli carried out by the federal government and state governments in the first half of the year, amid the electoral race.
At the same time, investments must remain reduced, given the high interest rate scenario, which has also been reflected in the various requests for judicial recovery in the retail sector.
This scenario of restrictions on economic activity should continue next year, contributing to lower GDP growth, analysts predict.
Flávio Serrano, chief economist at Banco Bmg, projected GDP growth of 1.5% in 2027, but believes that this number could, in fact, be closer to 1%.
The economist cites as factors for this pessimism the reduction in the basic interest rate slower than expected at the beginning of the year, the increase in debt and the reduction of fiscal impulse by the government, after the electoral cycle.
There are also more unfavorable financial conditions, with higher interest rates in the world and rising oil, putting pressure on local inflation.
"Next year will probably also have negative agricultural GDP, because of the effect of El Niño", says Serrano.
Alex Agostini, chief economist at risk assessment agency Austin Rating, told BBC News Brasil in September that the troubled fiscal scenario should be the biggest thorn in the side of the new government.
He believes that, whether Lula (PT) or Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins, some fiscal adjustment will be inevitable, which would have a contractionary effect on economic activity.
