Trump's war in Iran is illegal, because only the US Congress has the right to declare war. The president doesn't care. That Trump has yet to unleash another attack is because he has not wanted American voters to be reminded of his unpopular war ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
Support for Republicans has already plummeted because of the hike in gasoline prices, which most people realize is a result of the war on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is possible that Trump has not yet made a decision about an attack, which in that case is expected to take place together with Israel. But plans for "a short, intense military campaign" are already on the table.
The military upload has also continued. The US has increased its military presence and is now sending a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the region. Formerly the aircraft carriers USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington in place in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
This week, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said he had been briefed on the war plan, and he denounced it as crazy.
- I got a pretty detailed account of the war plan... I can only say that their plan is deranged. The attack will target civilian infrastructure and petrochemical facilities. It will lead to a prolongation and escalation of the war, which is devastating to our security interests and likely to cause us to lose our commitment to international law.
It will not force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or give up its nuclear ambitions, according to Murphy. Instead, the US will be stuck in yet another conflict without an end.
Even in Israel, which is expected to take part in a new attack, there are doubts that the time-limited war that the White House is talking about will break Iran's resistance. The Israeli military is concerned that the United States is going on the attack, quickly ending the fighting and declaring victory before Israel has achieved its goals, according to information provided by Haaretz newspaper.
Within the IDF, it is not believed that a few days of airstrikes can fundamentally affect the situation in Iran. Even a heavy blow to the military infrastructure does not guarantee that the regime will back down, much less that it will collapse.
Trump has claimed that the previous bombings "wiped out" Iran's nuclear program. But experts don't believe that.
If the regime survives, despite the fact that the US and Israel have subjected Iran to widespread destruction, it can be presented as a strategic victory.
One problem is that Israel partly has different goals than the United States. Benjamin Netanyahu's aim for a renewed war is to topple the Iranian regime and to destroy the country's nuclear technology program.
Trump, for his part, wants to force an agreement that ensures Iran never gets a nuclear bomb and secures free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US has urged the countries of the Middle East to prepare for Iranian counterattacks. It is a given that Iran and its regional proxy groups – such as the Houthis in Yemen – will strike back against energy facilities, military bases, desalination plants and internet cables in the Gulf states and Israel.
Only Trump knows if he will trigger another war against Iran, if so the third in less than two years. What may speak for a new attack are Trump's statements during the election campaign, where he says he is weighing between a negotiated settlement and a military strike "that ends" Iran's operational capabilities.
Right now, there are no negotiations between the US and Iran. But there are forces within the administration that want to prevent a renewed major war in the Middle East. One of them is likely to be Vice President JD Vance, who is believed to have opposed the war. Last weekend, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Security Council, offering to resume diplomatic ties.
In the letter, Vance suggests that Tehran commit to limiting its nuclear program. A key point is that Iran is giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. After that, a process can be started that leads to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for relief in the sanctions.
Iran has not yet responded to the letter. But Tehran's chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf wrote on X that the US "carrot and whip" has no effect on Iran and that the Iranian conditions are well known: that the war ends on all fronts, including in Lebanon, that sanctions against Iran's oil exports are lifted and that Iran gets access to its frozen assets.
