1. "Blue Wave" in Congress - Clap for Trump
Hardly anyone had expected such a violent lesson for the US President. The Democrats not only captured the House of Representatives, which was expected given the narrow majority of Republicans. They also regained the majority in the Senate with surprising clarity, which was considered difficult since the decisive races took place in Republican strongholds.
However, it was there that the Democrats achieved historic successes. In South Carolina, where Trump was 18 percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris two years ago, a Democrat won against the sister of the late prominent Senator Lindsey Graham. In Texas, a Democrat was elected to the US Senate for the first time in 38 years. And in deep red Kansas, a Democrat won Senate elections for the first time in almost 100 years.
This "blue wave" - some even call it a "blue tsunami" - is the result of the miserable poll numbers for Donald Trump. Only just under a third of Americans are satisfied with their government work. Trump is more unpopular than any other US president in 80 years.
2. "It's the economy, stupid"
Voter polls give Trump a damning report. Three quarters of voters are “angry” or “dissatisfied” with how things are currently going in the country. 60 percent blame Trump for the high cost of living. His Iran war is blamed for the expensive gasoline prices. 70 percent want Congress to exercise greater control over the president. And significantly more than half of voters accuse Trump of corruption because he enriched himself and his family while in office.
Two years ago, Harris made the threat to democracy the top issue of her election campaign. This time the Democrats returned to the recommendation of Bill Clinton's campaign manager in the 1990s: "It's the economy, stupid." Although Trump repeatedly points to the rise in stock prices, given high gasoline prices and expensive living costs, most US citizens believe that their economic situation has worsened.
This applies above all to two groups of voters who helped Trump to his clear election victory in 2024: Latinos and young men had hoped that Trump would bring about a significant economic recovery, more jobs and lower prices. This time, 70 percent of those under 30 and 60 percent of Latinos voted for Democratic candidates.
3. Trump will resist his fate as a “lame duck.”
The Democrats will make it much more difficult for Trump to govern. In the House of Representatives, they will now have the right to set up investigative committees and demand information from the government - up to and including initiating further impeachment proceedings. In addition, the Democrats now have the budget power (“Power of the Purse”). This allows them to reverse important plans of the president, such as the cuts to Obamacare health insurance. However, the US President can veto this.
So there must be more compromises between the government and the opposition in the next two years. Otherwise government work on important issues would be blocked.
The Democratic majority in the Senate can annoy Trump by rejecting important personnel proposals, for example for high judicial positions or government positions in Trump's cabinet.
When asked about a Democratically controlled Congress, Trump has already made combative statements: "I'm becoming 'Mr. Veto.' I won't let them ruin it." This suggests that Trump wants to continue governing using executive orders as if nothing had changed in Congress. The problem for Trump: The next US president can revoke his executive orders with just one signature.
Trump still has a lot of leeway when it comes to foreign policy. This has led to previous presidents trying to create a foreign policy legacy as "lame ducks" in their final years in office. For Trump, this could be the elimination of the regime in Iran or an end to the socialist dictatorship in Cuba.
4. The dispute over the direction of the Democrats continues
The surprising election victories in Republican strongholds were achieved by Democrats who belong to the moderate or conservative wing of the party. But Abdul El-Sayed, who belongs to the left wing of the party, also won the Senate seat in Michigan. At the same time, five members of the left-wing Democratic Socialists of America also entered the House of Representatives, albeit in traditionally “blue” states.
Even if the Democrats can look forward to a major election success, their dispute over which direction to take is not over. Left-wing Democrats like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani or Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez inspire the base and can mobilize core voters. However, in the swing states that are crucial in presidential elections, more moderate Democrats have a better chance of winning.
5. Even unprecedentedly high donations cannot buy election victories
This midterm election campaign is one of the most expensive and messiest in US history. More than eleven billion dollars were pumped into the many election campaigns. The comforting conclusion after this election is that a lot of money in the election campaign is important, but not always decisive for the election. Whoever has collected the most money doesn't always win.
Best example: The $160 million that Elon Musk used to prevent Democratic victories in Texas could not prevent the historic election victories of James Talarico as the first Democratic senator in 38 years and the first Latina as governor, Gina Hinojosa.
6. This election result says nothing about 2028
Many times in US history the incumbent president has received a severe lesson in the mid-term elections. This is what happened to Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010, for example. Nevertheless, both managed to win re-election two years later.
Trump cannot run again in two years. But his Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are considered promising presidential candidates. They will soon try to step out of Trump's shadow to raise their profile. If the Democrats do not succeed in convincing opposition work in Congress in the next two years, the "blue tsunami" - which they are now happy about - will long be history.
