Midterms: The midterm elections in the USA at a glance – this is what you need to know

Midterms: Everything you need to know about the midterm elections

There will be elections in the USA on Tuesday. This is how the elections work, then the first results come in and these are the effects that the midterms have on the second half of Donald Trump's term in office.

Dusseldorf. The midterms will take place in the USA on Tuesday. It will be decided there whether the US Congress will continue to be well disposed towards the president in the future - or whether Donald Trump will have to prepare for resistance. A large part of the US Parliament is being re-elected.

Trump's party, the Republicans, could then lose their slim majority in both chambers. Current surveys suggest such a scenario. An overview of the midterms.

What is chosen?

The US Congress consists of two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the midterm elections, Americans will re-elect all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate.

There is one congressman from each constituency in the House of Representatives. Of the 435 seats, 218 are currently in Republican hands, the Democrats have 214. Two more are vacant due to resignations or deaths, and Representative Kevin Kiley is a non-party after leaving the Republicans. Donald Trump only holds a slim majority so far. This is where the Democrats are most likely to win the chamber.

The Senate consists of two senators from each US state, i.e. a total of 100 representatives. The fact that only a third of the senators are up for election is due to the longer term of office of six years. This begins at different times, which is why only a part is re-elected every two years.

In the Senate, 22 Republican and 13 Democratic seats are up for re-election. However, most Republican seats are in states where Trump won significantly in 2024. Taking seats from the Republicans is therefore seen as a challenge for the Democrats. If the election is so close that there is a stalemate in the Senate, Vice President JD Vance will be allowed to vote and could thus turn the vote in favor of the Republicans.

Why is the election outcome so difficult to predict?

The redrawing of electoral districts in several states makes the election outcome more unpredictable. The electoral districts were redesigned in California, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and New York. Gerrymandering, practiced by both Republicans and Democrats, is intended to concentrate more voters from one party in a constituency. In the US majority voting system, the only thing that matters is who gets more votes in a constituency.

In addition to Congress, the majority of states are running elections for governors, the most powerful office in a state - including California, Arizona and Michigan. In many states, parliaments and other positions are also being redesignated, such as so-called secretaries of state, whose tasks often include election management in the states.

What do current surveys show?

According to the “Cook Political Report” portal, which specializes in election analysis, there are 17 elections in the House of Representatives and seven votes in the Senate that are neck and neck. According to polls, the Democrats could win the majority in the House of Representatives, while there is no clear picture emerging in the Senate.

An Ipsos poll shows a clear preference among Democrats. Accordingly, 47 percent of registered voters would generally vote for Democrats and 36 percent for Republicans.

Approval for the US President remains low at 32 percent. It reached its lowest point of 31 percent the previous week. The key issue here is the cost of living. Two thirds of Americans also rate the Iran War and healthcare as important. Only two out of ten Americans support Trump's handling of the high costs. The clear majority of Americans believe Trump's policies are responsible for rising prices.

Which topics influence the midterms?

Fuel prices in particular have risen massively since the beginning of Trump's second term in office. According to the AAA transportation club, a gallon of gasoline costs an average of $4.28, 39 percent more than a year ago. Diesel prices rose by 75 percent to $6.32.

Even if the economy in the USA continues to grow, the results are mixed, according to economists. The numerous special tariffs have not yet reduced the US trade deficit. National debt has continued to grow in the past two years - also because of the Iran war. Trump had also announced the big return of the industry, but so far this has not been seen across the board. In addition, fewer jobs were created under Donald Trump than under the previous administration.

How do the elections themselves take place and when can we expect results?

The election often takes place weeks in advance, as millions of Americans use postal voting or vote early. Last week, the Election Lab at the University of Florida counted over 36 million early votes.

The majority of US citizens will vote on November 3rd. Polling stations open early in the morning and close between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time. In some cases, citizens decide on local judges and controversial referendums at the same time.

In the USA, voting takes place in six different time zones. Therefore, the first results are already coming while elections are still taking place in other states. The first polling stations on the east coast have been open since 11 a.m. German time. You can vote until the German night. The first polling stations in Kentucky and Indiana close at midnight German time.

The polling stations in Georgia close at 1 a.m. German time, where the race for the Senate could be exciting. The polls close at 2 a.m. (Maine, Pennsylvania) and 3 a.m. (Arizona, New York and Wisconsin) in the key states where the race for Senate and House of Representatives is still exciting. In Alaska, the race for the Senate has not yet been decided. The polling stations there are open until 6 a.m. German time.

The counting begins immediately after the polls close, although in many states the votes cast on election day are processed first and the postal ballot documents only afterwards. This can lead to significant shifts in the overall result as the count progresses, as the structure of postal voters is sometimes very different from that of voters at the polling station.

Only when the major television stations declare winners based on voter surveys and initial vote counts will the picture of the majority situation become more solid. The first reliable results can be expected in the early hours of Wednesday morning between 5 and 7 a.m. If it is very close, it could take several days in individual states until it is clear who is ahead.

In the following weeks, the official election results are confirmed by the local election audit offices or the election officer of the respective state. The term of the current congresswoman ends on January 3, 2027 at 12:00 noon. The newly elected parliament meets immediately afterwards. The first official act of the new House of Representatives is the election of the Speaker of the House. That is currently the Republican and Trump confidant Mike Johnson.

What would a policy change in Congress mean for the president?

The elections shortly before the middle of the US president's four-year term are traditionally seen as a referendum on his policies. They will determine how much political space Trump has in the next two years. Without a majority in both chambers of Congress, a president can only make lasting changes to domestic policy.

Historically, the ruling party almost always loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. Given the low approval ratings for Trump's policies, the loss of a few seats in both parliaments would not be unusual - this has already happened several times in the past.

Even with a majority in one or both chambers of Congress, Democrats could exert greater control over Trump's government. Since the majority party chairs committees, they could initiate investigations or subpoena government officials to testify under oath. The Constitution also grants the House of Representatives the right to initiate impeachment proceedings. The Senate then decides on the actual impeachment - this requires a two-thirds majority, which is difficult to achieve.

How could the midterms affect financial markets?

The findings are likely to shape future policy in the areas of cryptocurrencies, credit card fees, financial regulation and artificial intelligence (AI). A Democratic victory in at least one of the two chambers of Congress where Republicans currently have the majority would give the party extensive investigative powers. They could use this to examine both financial companies and the work of supervisory authorities more closely.

The gubernatorial elections taking place at the same time are also important. Trillions of dollars in new AI data centers are at stake in ten elections. Growing popular resistance to planned projects also became an issue during the election campaign. Oversight of planning and permitting lies with the states and municipalities. A strong performance by the Democrats could slow down the expansion that had recently supported share prices in the industry.