Mikhail Kasianov says Putin does not recognize his mistake in Ukraine

Despite the growing economic difficulties and the great weariness of the Russian population, Vladimir Putin cannot admit the “mistake” he made in invading Ukraine, says Mikhail Kasyanov, former Russian Prime Minister, in an interview with AFP on Saturday.

Prime Minister from 2000 to 2004, Mikhail Kasianov, a supporter when he was in office of Russia's rapprochement with the West, became after his dismissal by Vladimir Putin one of the Kremlin's most virulent critics.

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“He believed the reports from his security services”

For him, the Russian president “committed a mistake that he cannot admit” by invading Ukraine in 2022. “He believed the reports from his security services according to which Ukraine was weak.”

For the 68-year-old former prime minister, who spoke on the sidelines of a conference organized by the French association “Russie-Libertés”, the war will not end in 2027. According to him, Vladimir Putin is comforted both by the increase in the price of oil due to the war between the United States and Iran and by the disagreements between the United States and Europe on how to deal with the Kremlin.

“Putin is rubbing his hands,” says Mr. Kasyanov. “He thinks he can continue the war without making the slightest concession. And he is convinced that he is winning the war of attrition against Ukraine. Mr. Kasianov, who predicts a particularly harsh winter in Ukraine, calls on Western countries to exert “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” in close ranks and to urgently provide Patriot missile interceptors to Ukraine, which is facing an intensification of strikes against its civilian infrastructure.

“Everyone wants the war to end”

Mr Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022, now lives in exile in Riga. In 2023, Russia designated him as a “foreign agent.” He explains that he is still in contact with members of the ruling class in Russia. According to him, in Russia, “everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority, in any case.” “The difference is the type of ending: some want the war to end in victory, others in Putin's defeat, and still others just want it to end, whatever the outcome.”

Mr. Kasyanov says he sees “no reason for a revolt”, despite the numerous deaths at the front and the rise in food prices. “Russians have been living with high inflation for 30 years.” “They got used to putting up with it.” In his eyes, in this country which has become “practically totalitarian”, only large-scale mobilization could trigger demonstrations.

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“There is a strong feeling of fatalism and great tensions in society,” he says. “People withdraw into their families, and negative feelings toward others grow.” He calls on Western countries, and particularly European ones, not to be afraid of Vladimir Putin's ranting or his threats to use nuclear weapons. On Thursday, the Russian head of state said that Russia would consider using “all types of weapons” if the Kaliningrad enclave was attacked.

“Too afraid of Putin”

“The biggest mistake Westerners and Europeans make is being too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he seems,” Mr. Kasianov said in front of a packed room at the Russia Freedoms conference. “Putin fears the nuclear button, much more than the Europeans,” he added. He wants foreigners to believe that he is “a psychopath”, when he is only a “very calculating cynic”.

Despite the increase in Europe in attacks attributed to the Kremlin, Mr. Kasyanov does not believe that the Russian leader is ready for open conflict with Europe. “What Putin wants is respect,” he said. “He wants to force all of Europe to grant it to him.”

But he predicts an increase in acts of hybrid warfare, saying Vladimir Putin, a former officer in Russia's KGB security service, is seeking to push the West into responding in a way he can exploit by framing it as an attack on Russia. “He’s a provocateur,” he added. “The only method he understands is the one he was taught at the KGB academy. He told me so himself."