
AI-generated summary
Prediction markets are currently embroiled in legal battles between state authorities and the CFTC over regulatory jurisdiction.
Most Americans polled by Reuters/Ipsos are opposed to betting on US elections and other government actions.
The prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, enables people to bet on US elections, government policy moves and sporting events, which has resulted in a series of lawsuits involving state and federal agencies over who has the authority to regulate these markets.
Some 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans polled said they opposed using prediction markets to bet on election results. The Reuters/Ipsos survey of 4,506 adults nationwide was taken on Sept. 30-Oct. 5.
Even betting on professional sports was opposed by 43% of respondents, while 29% supported it, the poll said.
President Donald Trump’s administration is pursuing federal regulations for the industry through the CFTC, which states are fighting. Many expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court.
Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 8 that 39 US states and the District of Columbia filed an amicus brief saying the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had resulted in a “national turf war” that could not be resolved without an answer from the Supreme Court.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The dispute over prediction market regulation will reach the Supreme Court.
Likely · Within months

A recent Ipsos poll reveals that most Americans oppose using prediction markets for election betting, challenging the industry's claim that the value of their forecasts justifies the commercialization of political outcomes and potential conflicts of interest.

Fairshake, a crypto industry political action committee, has spent over $40 million to defeat Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, including a recent $5.2 million media buy and a $1.95 million follow-up, as disclosed in an FEC filing. The group also supports Brown’s Republican opponent, Jon Husted, and has expanded its efforts to House races, backing 32 incumbents with an initial $6 million. Fairshake, funded by Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, entered September with $120 million in cash and plans to spend over $100 million in the 2026 cycle.

Senator Richard Blumenthal has requested documentation from Cantor Fitzgerald regarding its custodial relationship with Tether, citing concerns over national security, sanctions compliance, and potential conflicts of interest involving Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) introduced the 'No Betting on Your Own Race Act' to prohibit federal candidates, spouses, and campaign committees from trading prediction market contracts on their own election outcomes, proposing fines for violations.

Fairshake, a pro-crypto PAC backed by Coinbase, Ripple Labs and Andreessen Horowitz, announced an initial $6 million spend on six House candidates from its list of 32 supported incumbents ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections. The PAC plans to spend over $100 million on House and Senate races, including at least $30 million in Ohio’s Senate race to support Republican Jon Husted over Democrat Sherrod Brown. All 32 backed candidates voted for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which failed in the Senate. Fairshake reported $122 million cash on hand in August, while Public Citizen noted $82 million in ad spending by June, less than half of the $189 million estimated from crypto-aligned groups.

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