Had They Warned Netanyahu Before October 7? Intelligence Discussions Make Their Mark in Israeli Elections

As 3 years have passed since October 2023, when Israel launched its genocide against Gaza, the country is heading to the critical parliamentary elections on October 27, 2026, under the shadow of harsh political debates.

At the center of the election debates are the allegations that Netanyahu was warned by domestic and foreign intelligence units before the attacks and that the Israeli Prime Minister did not take these warnings into consideration.

Opponents claim that Netanyahu was warned in advance and ignored it; The Israeli Prime Minister denies the accusations.

The series of warnings said to come before October 2023

Investigative reports published in the Israeli and American media claim that important intelligence reports from both regional leaders and his own security bureaucracy reached Netanyahu's desk weeks before October 7.

Claims regarding this were first made by Haaretz, one of Israel's leading newspapers.

In the news published in Haaretz newspaper on September 8, 2026, it was claimed that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned Netanyahu in his phone call with Netanyahu in late September 2023.

The report stated that Netanyahu ignored this warning and did not convey it to his security staff, stating that he expected a threat from the West Bank instead of Gaza.

While Netanyahu denied this news, the UAE administration neither denied nor confirmed it. Netanyahu, who became the focus of criticism due to these discussions, went to the UAE on September 27 and met with Al Nahyan.

Israeli media claimed that Netanyahu asked Al Nahyan to deny Haaretz's claim during the visit. However, it was noteworthy that there was no statement from Al Nahyan after this meeting.

Domestic intelligence alerts

In the news of the Jerusalem Post newspaper on September 8, based on a security source, it was claimed that Ronen Bar, Director of the Shin-Bet (Shabak), the domestic intelligence service at the time, also warned Netanyahu on October 1, 2023.

The security source argued that the intelligence report predicting the assassination of Yahya Sinwar and other senior officials was presented to Netanyahu by the Bar before Hamas took action, but the Prime Minister did not accept it, and said, "The recent news on this issue is true." he claimed.

Giora Eiland, former President of Israel's National Security Council, stated in a statement to Israel's Maariv newspaper on September 14 that then Director of Military Intelligence Aharon Haliva changed his analysis of the risk of multi-front war.

Stating that he had a one-on-one meeting with Netanyahu on August 16, 2023, Eiland stated that he warned the Prime Minister that a major war could break out at the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024.

Warning from Egyptian intelligence

The Atlantic magazine reported on September 26 that the then Egyptian Intelligence Director, Abbas Kamil, secretly landed at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26, 2023 and told the Tel Aviv administration, "If you do not change your route, Gaza will explode in your face." It was claimed that he had given a warning.

The news claimed that a new warning was sent to Israel via Egypt on October 5, 2023.

While Netanyahu denied these allegations and repeated the thesis that he was not warned before October 7, no official statement was made from Egypt about this news.

News reflected in the US media

Leading US publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Atlantic; He wrote that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), based on foreign service sources, prepared reports in late September and early October that Hamas would escalate tensions.

Additionally, the New York Times reported that UAE leader Al Nahyan personally warned Netanyahu and confirmed to CIA Director William Burns months later.

Netanyahu files lawsuit against media outlets and journalists

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office strongly denied Haaretz's report and claimed that no phone records were found between Netanyahu and Bin Zayed between the beginning of September 2023 and October 7.

According to Channel 14 television, Netanyahu filed a lawsuit for damages of 850 thousand dollars on September 30.

The defendants include Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth and Channel 12, as well as journalists Shlomi Eldar, Ruth Yuval, Uri Misgav, Nadav Eyal and Barak Ravid.

In the face of increasing pressure before the elections, Netanyahu said, "They didn't wake me up that morning, if they had, everything would have been different." He targeted former Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi and former Shin-Bet Chairman Ronen Bar, citing his rhetoric.

Prime Minister's Office and circles close to the government; Bar was accused of not informing the army, not evacuating the Nova festival, and conducting secret meetings with Egyptian intelligence.

Reacting harshly to these accusations, former Shin-Bet Chairman Bar announced that he was preparing to file a libel lawsuit against Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Harsh reaction from opposition and security circles

Netanyahu's persistent obstruction of the establishment of an official state investigation commission caused great reaction from the Israeli opposition and former security officials.

Yashar Party Chairman Gadi Eisenkot, who made the first statement on September 8 after Haaretz newspaper announced the UAE allegations, stated that Netanyahu blindly dragged Israel into disaster, and despite receiving dozens of warnings, he took refuge in the lie "I was not warned" to escape responsibility.

Reacting on the same day, Democratic Party Chairman Yair Golan emphasized that Netanyahu should be in prison due to the crimes he committed.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also pointed out the accuracy of these warnings and noted that the failure in October 2023 was directly Netanyahu's personal responsibility.