NFL Australia Week 1: 49ers vs. Rams Preview with Betting Odds and Model Predictions
Quick Look
- The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams open their 2026 NFL seasons in Melbourne for NFL Australia Week 1, with the Rams as 3.5-point favorites and the over/under set at 48.5 points.
- SportsLine's projection model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, recommends taking the over and has generated over $7,000 in profits for $100 players since its inception.
- Key projections include Brock Purdy exceeding 220 passing yards and one touchdown, and Matthew Stafford surpassing 235 yards and two touchdowns.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Both the 49ers and Rams finished the 2025 season with 12-5 records, tied for second in the NFC West. The Rams lost to the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game, while the 49ers were eliminated by Seattle in the divisional round.
NFC West contenders open their regular seasons when the San Francisco 49ers battle the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 NFL Australia Week 1 matchup in Melbourne on Thursday. Both teams tied for second in the division with 12-5 records last year. The Rams fell short to the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks 31-27 in the NFC Championship Game. The Niners also were eliminated by the Seahawks, losing 41-6 in a divisional round matchup. Aaron Donald will not play for the Rams this week as he continues to condition following his return from a two-year retirement. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:
Kickoff is at 8:35 p.m. ET from Melbourne Cricket Ground, where the local time is 10:35 a.m. on Friday morning. The latest Rams vs. 49ers odds have Los Angeles as 3.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. The Over went a combined 23-15-1 for the teams across last year's regular and postseason. Before making any 49ers vs. Rams picks, be sure to see the NFL Australia game predictions from SportsLine's projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zeroed in on 49ers vs. Rams. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Rams vs. 49ers:
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Top 49ers vs. Rams predictions
After 10,000 simulations of 49ers vs. Rams, the model is going Over 48.5 combined points at betting apps. The Rams and their opponents combined to score 49 or more points in 12 of 20 games, including the postseason. Los Angeles averaged a league-best 30.5 points a year ago. San Francisco was 10th in scoring in 2025, averaging 25.7 points.
San Francisco's Brock Purdy is projected to throw for more than 220 yards and one touchdown. Los Angeles' Matthew Stafford, meanwhile is projected to throw for over 235 yards and two touchdowns. SportsLine's model projects 49 combined points between the 49ers and Rams. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make 49ers vs. Rams picks
In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time.See what it is at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The over/under of 48.5 total points will be hit in the 49ers vs. Rams game.
Likely · Within hours
Brock Purdy will throw for over 220 yards and at least one touchdown.
Likely · Within hours
Matthew Stafford will throw for over 235 yards and at least two touchdowns.
Likely · Within hours
Open Questions
- Will Aaron Donald play in future games this season?
- How will the time zone difference affect player performance in Melbourne?
- What are the injury statuses of other key players beyond Aaron Donald?
