NFL Week 3: Overreactions and Reality Checks on Quarterbacks, Turnovers, and Team Trajectories

By Week 3, we should be figuring out the NFL landscape, right?

Apparently not.

The Commanders, without Jayden Daniels, beat the Seahawks 33-31. The Browns beat the Panthers 21-18. The Steelers' offense exploded in a 30-27 win over the Bengals, one week after we were singing the praises of the Cincinnati defense and lambasting Pittsburgh's inept offense.

Now? We have plenty to reconsider and plenty to question. But some beliefs have grown stronger, too. Let's get into some overreactions and some reality checks.

Drake Maye's turnover problem will have the Patriots' playoff chances in jeopardy

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Drake Maye threw two more awful interceptions in the Patriots' dismal 35-6 loss to the Jaguars. Here's where the game changed ...

... and here's where it basically ended.

The Jaguars had just scored a touchdown moments before that second Maye pick. They then scored another touchdown one play after. In a matter of seconds, the game went from 14-3 to 28-3. Maye, fittingly, spent the waning moments watching from the sideline.

He also had a ridiculous fumble.

Maye has six interceptions this season, two more than anyone else. He only had eight all of last season.

But it's not just that he's throwing them, which is bad enough. It's when and where he's throwing them, too. In Week 1, the Patriots were only down 13-10 to the Seahawks when he threw the game away, quite literally, in the Seattle end zone. It's a situation in which you absolutely cannot score zero points. At least get three and go to overtime. Same with the Travis Hunter pick above; at least get three and get to the locker room for halftime.

Maye's turnovers have totaled a -30.1 expected points added. Basically, the Patriots have lost 30(!) points via Maye turnovers. It's the worst number through three weeks by any player since Will Levis in 2024. That's bad company.

Here's the thing: Last week I said Maye's turnovers wouldn't cost the Patriots in a major way. Now? I'm ready to change my tune. Yes, it's a week-to-week league. But on Sunday alone, Maye's three turnovers cost New England an estimated 17-18 points. It appears he is not learning his lesson(s).

Mike Vrabel said his concern level is "very high." I didn't make too much of the whole "Maye was a product of the schedule" last year talk, but the Patriots' historically difficult opening is rearing its head. Turnovers anywhere are brutal. Near either end zone are absolute killers. Maye isn't making up for them with big downfield completions, something he did a ton last year.

It's early, but it's clear the Patriots don't have the margin of error they had last year, either.

Trevor Lawrence is a dark-horse MVP candidate

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Want to see what the best version of Maye could be? You only needed to look at the other offense in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes and could have run for another score (he kneeled). The difficulty level on some of his throws is really impressive.

On the drive that helped the Jaguars put the game away — a 15-play, 72-yard march in the third quarter — Lawrence somehow found Bhayshul Tuten for 15 yards with two Patriots defenders draped all over him. On a third-and-11 later in the drive, he got hit as he threw and still found Jakobi Meyers for 14 yards. Oh yeah, and to top it off, he did this on third and goal from the 17.

(Parker Washington is awesome, by the way.)

Lawrence is simply playing at an extremely high level. He wasn't great last week at the Broncos, but as we've already seen, every quarterback has off weeks. He is finally unlocking everything we projected he could be when he was coming out of Clemson: big arm that can access the entire field, impressive athleticism and awesome downfield accuracy, especially over the middle of the field.

The Commanders got the most important win of the season so far

The last time the Commanders played the Seahawks, they lost 38-14 and Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow for the first time. Last week, he dislocated it a second time, an ominous sign ahead of a rematch for Seattle. Washington was 0-2, with a backup quarterback facing the reigning Super Bowl champs (who were getting their own starter back), and the sky seemed to be falling.

As it turns out, things are not always what they seem. Marcus Mariota threw for three touchdowns against arguably the NFL's finest defense, and his first down run on an option play sealed the win. The theme here has to be how the Commanders responded, up and down the roster.

Kain Medrano had never played a defensive snap in the NFL before Leo Chenal got hurt. With Frankie Luvu also out, Washington turned to Medrano, who had a stunning pick-six off Sam Darnold.

Terry McLaurin, off to an underwhelming start this year, had six catches for 77 yards and a score. When Seattle went right down the field to make it 33-31, the Washington offense responded with two critical third-down conversions: a Rachaad White 19-yard run on third-and-9 and then Marriota's run to seal it. Even rookie kicker Drew Stevens, who had misses in both of the first two games, made a 57-yarder.

With everything Washington faced over the past week, the team could have crumbled. Instead, it bounced back in stunning fashion. I'm not sure if it's sustainable or if Washington can be part of the playoff picture, but this win says a lot about the character of Dan Quinn's team.

The Seahawks losing Kenneth Walker was the worst loss this offseason

Overreaction or reality: Reality

You may see the Seahawks' 30 points and think their offense looked good.

You would be half-right. The passing offense, in Sam Darnold's return, largely shredded Washington's struggling secondary. Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns (with two interceptions). Seattle had a 59% success rate through the air. Last year, for reference, the Rams led the NFL at 53%.

But Seattle ran the ball 18 times for just 44 yards, and first-round rookie Jadarian Price had a bad fumble early in the game.

Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker, who left Seattle this offseason, currently leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards.

This is an issue, and not one Zach Charbonnet's eventual return will necessarily solve. Walker's explosive running ability can't be replicated by anyone in the Seattle backfield. Walker wanted to be a feature back, something he never was in Seattle until Charbonnet's injury. There's a reason a Super Bowl MVP hadn't changed teams the season following a title win in over 20 years before Walker did it this offseason. Seattle had lots of extensions this offseason, but not keeping Walker was a big mistake.

The Giants need to add another quarterback

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Giants beat the Titans 12-7, a score that very much tells the story. In truly disgusting weather, the offense was ... disgusting. We should have known from the start: Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff return, only for the Giants to go backward and punt. This was New York's first win without scoring a touchdown since 2013.

The bigger headline was before the game, when ESPN and NFL Network reported the Giants could look for outside quarterback help depending on how Jameis Winston played following Jaxson Dart's season-ending injury. The list is pretty long and has some significant names

The problem? There just aren't great options. The 49ers have no reason to trade Mac Jones. Some of the other names on the list who would require a trade — Justin Fields, Gardner Minshew, J.J. McCarthy — wouldn't be an upgrade. Neither would Brandon Allen, who spent this preseason with the Giants.

I ranked Jimmy Garoppolo as the top external option, but the top option overall would just be to go with Winston, at least for now.

The Chargers' season is over

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Entering Sunday, teams that had a -4 turnover margin or worse were 16-477-1 since 2000. That is a .035 win percentage.

Make it 17-477-1. The Bills beat the Chargers 24-16 in a game Buffalo tried to give away over and over and over and over — yes, four "overs" — again. Josh Allen threw a pair of picks and lost a fumble. James Cook lost a fumble on the first play from scrimmage, gifting the Chargers a short field they turned into a touchdown. Dalton Kincaid lost a fumble on a big catch.

And still, the Chargers fell to 0-3. Justin Herbert threw another terrible interception, this one late and deep in Buffalo territory, just three plays after an Allen fumble. Cameron Dicker missed another field goal. Quentin Johnston had another costly drop.

The Chargers gave up 176 rushing yards. They went one for four in the red zone. They allowed two fourth-down conversions on two Buffalo attempts.

If you can't win this game — after you couldn't beat the Raiders or the Cardinals — your season is over. Here's the upcoming schedule, by the way: