Expectations mean so much. At the Labor Party's vigil in September last year, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was met by jubilant party comrades.
- We did it, he exclaimed.
The Norwegian Labor Party had turned against the wind in opinion polls to win the election and advanced by 1.7 percentage points to 28.0 percent. The red-green parties retained a tenuous hold on the majority in the Norwegian parliament.
In the parliamentary elections in Sweden on 13 September this year, the Swedish Social Democrats fared worse than expected. But the final result is the same as in Norway: 28.0 percent. Government power is within reach.
- I have followed the reporting from Sweden and was struck by the similarities, says Johannes Bergh, election researcher at the Institute for Social Research in Oslo.
The big difference is that the government was formed on election night in Norway. The attempt to govern a coalition government with the Norwegian Center Party had already failed in the winter of 2025 after a conflict over the EU and energy. The Labor Party could continue to govern with a one-party minority government.
But it doesn't have it that easy. If S leader Magdalena Andersson dreams of a similar solution to the Swedish government puzzle, there are lessons to be learned from Norway.
- The Labor Party has a weak majority and needs support from all the other red-green parties. And we even have one more party than you have in Sweden, so there are five parties that have to unite, and that has created big problems, says Johannes Bergh.
The government has passed its budget. But it suffers setbacks on many issues in the Storting.
Last spring, for example, the Center Party chose to make common cause with the opposition and push through a temporary reduction in the fees on petrol and diesel. The reduction ended in September, after the Moderates' sister party Høyre followed the government's line. But the debate continues.
- It is largely the case that politics is decided in the Storting. It gives the opposition and other parties more power. It is not a favorable situation for the Labor Party, says Johannes Bergh.
Denmark held parliamentary elections in March this year, and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (S) was greeted by roaring headlines about fiasco when she stepped into Christiansborg on election night. In the final count, the Social Democrats backed down to 21.9 percent.
Her choice of path – with economic policy to the left and a hard line on immigration policy – has aroused great interest among Swedish social democrats. Voters are not as impressed.
- The Swedish Social Democrats worry that they are losing ground, but they are very strong in comparison, says Robert Klemmensen, professor of political science at Lund University, with many years of experience in Danish politics.
It took 69 days – a Danish record – to put together a new government. The so-called four-leaf clover coalition consists of the Social Democracy, the liberal center party Moderaterne, the social liberal Radikale Venstre and the green left party Socialist Folkeparti. The four parties do not have their own majority in the Norwegian Parliament, but rely on support from mainly Enhedslisten on the left.
- The big test will come when the budget is to be negotiated, and it will be difficult, notes Robert Klemmensen.
The budget proposal contains tax breaks, investment in defense and tightening of student aid. Political experts in Denmark conclude that the Social Democrats and the Moderates hold the baton.
Robert Klemmensen agrees:
- This is particularly visible in the policy regarding the student grants. In practice, the Socialist People's Party and the Radical Left have had no influence here.
It is the second time that the Socialist People's Party has been part of a Danish government. The Swedish Left Party has never held ministerial posts.
- The difference is probably that the Socialist People's Party is less left-wing than the Left Party. The Socialist People's Party has shown itself to be willing to compromise, perhaps to the extreme. But it is also true that it is always better to be in power than to be outside, says Robert Klemmensen.
Perhaps the lesson from the sister parties in Scandinavia is that the Social Democrats can continue to govern, as long as the opposition is divided. The Danish Moderates prefer center cooperation, just like the Swedish Center Party.
- Although the government may face difficulties, there is thus no viable alternative as long as the Moderates stick to the Social Democracy, says Robert Klemmensen.
