The Duke Blue Devils come off their first loss of the season, while the North Carolina Tar Heels just posted a huge victory as the teams get set for an ACC showdown Saturday in Durham, N.C. The Blue Devils (4-1, 1-1) cruised past Stanford in their first ACC game but lost by three points at Georgia Tech on Saturday. UNC (3-2, 1-1) dropped its first ACC matchup to Clemson then lost to then-No. 3 Notre Dame before knocking No. 25 Pittsburgh out of the rankings with a 21-17 road victory in Week 6. Kickoff at Wallace Wade Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET, and host Duke is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest North Carolina vs. Duke odds. The Over/Under for total points scored is 47.5.
Duke has won the past two meetings between the teams, including a 32-25 victory in Chapel Hill last November, but the Tar Heels are 65-40-4 in the all-time series, which dates to 1890. Here, we break down the latest North Carolina vs. Duke odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and highlight our best bet for the ACC battle using the SportsLine Projection Model. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 7 on a profitable 48-40 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites.
North Carolina vs. Duke betting odds (via DraftKings)
North Carolina vs. Duke money line: North Carolina +142, Duke -170
North Carolina vs. Duke Over/Under: 46.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
North Carolina vs. Duke spread: Duke -3.5
North Carolina vs. Duke betting preview
Bill Belichick's Tar Heels have been competitive against comparable teams, though they allowed 13 points in the fourth quarter to give up a 17-15 lead they had with just over 8 minutes left in the loss to Clemson. That followed a 2.5-hour weather delay that appeared to sap UNC's momentum. They forced Notre Dame to work for its victory before surprising Pitt 21-17 at Acrisure Stadium. Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 249 yards and two TDs last week, including a 75-yarder to tight end Shamar Easter, to overcome two interceptions. The senior quarterback has 1,069 passing yards with eight TDs and five interceptions. Jordan Shipp is the team's top receiver with 366 yards (14.1 per catch), while Easter has just six receptions but has two TDs and is averaging 20.3 yards per catch. The Heels should be led by their defense, as the offense scores the fourth-fewest points in the ACC (23.4 per game). Defensively, UNC is 10th in the ACC in total yards (356.2 per game) but allows less than 20 points per contest (fourth). Xavier Lewis has an ACC-best 6.5 of the team's 12 sacks, and the unit has eight takeaways in five games.
Duke is statistically better on both sides of the ball, as the offense averages 34 points per game (fourth in ACC) and the defense yields just 14.4 (second only to Miami). The Blue Devils defense is particularly stingy against the run, allowing 84 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the conference. The Duke offense averages 126 more total yards than UNC's unit, with the Blue Devils putting up 456.6 per contest and the Heels averaging 330.6. Quarterback Walker Eget is completing 62.7% of his passes and has thrown for 928 yards and seven TDs in 2026. He has also thrown just one interception and been sacked once. Meanwhile, running back Nate Sheppard leads the ACC with 743 rushing yards and has scored eight times, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. He had 190 total yards in last week's loss. The Blue Devils have 11 sacks, led by linebacker Bradley Gompers with three and ends Bryce Davis and Tyshon Reed with two apiece. The defense hasn't been making a ton of impact plays, with just one interception and four takeaways overall, but it is playing hard-nosed football.
In last year's meeting, the Blue Devils outgained the Tar Heels 352-305, and UNC had 12 penalties for 103 yards. Current Miami quarterback and Heisman contender Darian Mensah threw for just 177 yards for Duke, but it had 175 rushing yards in the victory. Sheppard had 90 on the ground and 18 as a receiver. The Blue Devils had a 12-minute advantage in time of possession. They are 4-1 against the spread, covering in all three games at home, while UNC is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of four as an underdog.
North Carolina vs. Duke picks, prediction
Over 47.5
