New Zealand: Everything you need to know about the very uncertain political situation after the legislative elections

New Zealand went to the polls on Saturday. And no clear political line emerges from these legislative elections. Neither the ruling conservatives nor the center-left opposition obtained a majority in Parliament.

The political future of the archipelago is up in the air after these very close elections. 20 Minutes therefore takes stock of what could happen to break the political impasse.

What are the results of the legislative elections?

Preliminary results published by the electoral commission this Sunday give the National Party of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the Labor Party led by Chris Hipkins neck and neck with 29.21% and 29.36% respectively. But due to the complex voting method mixing national lists and local ballots in constituencies, projections give 42 seats out of 131 to the ruling party against 36 for Labor, with the other parties sharing the rest of the seats.

What does the outgoing Prime Minister intend to do?

Christopher Luxon hopes to be able to keep his position. “We can work with our current coalition partners to form the government,” the prime minister said on Sunday.

Christopher Luxon had relied on his promises not to introduce new taxes to manage to stay in power after three turbulent years in office, with two unsuccessful attempts by his own party to dismiss him and a sluggish economy. The Labor Party proposed a set of measures to ease the economic pressure on New Zealanders, as the price of basic necessities remains very high.

When will the final results be known?

The published results cover 2.4 million votes cast during the early voting period and on Election Day. They do not include some 400,000 “special votes” including around 100,000 ballots cast overseas as well as those from voters who voted in New Zealand outside the constituency where they live. The full and final vote count will be published on November 27.

Can the election still change?

All eyes are now on a few hotly contested constituencies that could swing the election to the left bloc's side, but its path to victory remains extremely narrow. Labor candidates are trailing by just a few hundred votes in two key constituencies: Hamilton East and Wairarapa.

Labor also needs a significant change in both constituencies and list voting to snatch victory, but the National Party's surplus of seats protects it from any party-list upset. Fueling the hopes of the opposition, “special votes” traditionally lean to the left.

How will the coalition negotiations take place?

Only after the publication of the final results will the parties begin coalition negotiations to form the next government. But it is possible that no official agreement will be reached by the end of the year. The current coalition between the National Party, the libertarian ACT Party and the populist NZ First party has been a fragile alliance since 2023 and has said it is ready to work together again.

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If the left bloc manages to break through thanks to the special votes, it could form a coalition with the Green Party, the indigenous Te Pati Maori party and the new centrist Opportunity Party (TOP). The latter is currently given seven seats, which will give it significant weight in future negotiations. This movement, founded in 2016 and until now relatively confidential, has experienced meteoric progress in the polls ahead of the election, under the leadership of Qiulae Wong, who advocates a “pragmatic policy” to fight against polarization.