The first interest rate increase is now expected - "tougher times"

- Now there will be tougher times for households, both with higher prices and higher interest rates, says Susanne Spector, chief economist at Danske Bank.

She expects three increases to 2.50 percent in the policy rate in the next few months.

The cost of a mortgage of two million would increase by SEK 15,000 per year - if you ignore the interest deduction - if the mortgage rate keeps up at the same rate.

- It will probably be slightly austerity in the next year, in combination with households facing more expensive electricity bills, more expensive fuel prices and higher general prices, she says of the effects.

It is around these levels that the policy rate will oscillate going forward, Spector believes.

- We currently see a strong Swedish economy. We see the global economy soon to be on the way to gearing up. So these supply disruptions face strong economies and that increases the risk of inflation, she says.

Colleague Ulf Andersson at DNB Carnegie Sweden is on the same track, although he believes that the Riksbank will delay the third increase until the third quarter of 2027.

In Sweden, he sees continued good household consumption and large investments, both private and public - not least linked to large investments in defense and infrastructure.

- Another reason is that there are many signs that inflation may become too high in the future. It is low today, apparently low, because we have a series of temporary fiscal support measures such as halving food VAT and more, he says.

Added to that is a new geopolitical dynamic with more protectionism, more global conflict surfaces, greater risk of supply disruptions and thus the need for increased resilience, which inevitably leads to higher inflation, according to Andersson.

He already notes higher producer prices in Sweden and how companies' price plans are pointing upwards. The weakening of the krone during the year also contributes.

- The Riksbank needs to react to this in good time, says Andersson.

The Riksbank flagged in September that lending in the Swedish economy must be tightened, in order to curb inflation. Two or three interest rate increases this year and next year were then in the bank's forecast.

Wednesday's announcement comes without a new monetary policy report. If the manager Erik Thedéen and his management want to change the interest rate plans, the signals about this will come in the press release or at the press conference after the announcement.