Democratic approval rating ahead of US midterm elections, NYT/Siena University survey

A public opinion poll showed that the Democratic Party has a clear lead in approval ratings ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.

According to the results of a recent opinion poll released by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena University on the 15th (local time), 51% of respondents said that if the election were held today, they would likely vote for the Democratic candidate in their district. 43% of respondents said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

There are less than 50 days left until the midterm elections. The NYT interpreted that the Democratic Party has secured a clear advantage over the Republican Party as President Donald Trump has lost trust due to economic issues.

President Trump's approval rating for his administration was low at 38%. In particular, in this poll, for the first time in Trump's second term, a majority of respondents, 52%, answered that they did not strongly support the president.

In addition, more than half of respondents evaluated President Trump's performance of state affairs negatively on all major issues, including the economy, immigration, and war.

The majority of respondents said they trusted the Democratic Party over the Republican Party not only on health insurance and war, but also on immigration and economic issues, which were the driving force behind President Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Among Republican supporters, only 28% responded that they supported President Trump's approach to dealing with inflation and cost of living issues.

The NYT explained that the Republican Party's vulnerability has increased amid the Democratic Party's offensive to retake both the Senate and the House of Representatives, amid President Trump's continued unpopularity and prolonged dissatisfaction with the cost of living.

However, he pointed out that although the results of the opinion polls alone suggest a landslide victory for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections, the results are not guaranteed.

The reason for this is, first of all, the effect of ‘gerrymandering’, which artificially readjusts electoral districts. Ahead of the midterm elections, several states passed House district demarcation bills that favor Republican candidates.

In addition, it is difficult to guarantee victory in some Senate seats that the Democratic Party is trying to recapture in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, where President Trump won a landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the same opinion poll showed that about half of American voters have an unfavorable view of Democratic Socialism (DSA), which has recently emerged rapidly within the Democratic Party.

Regarding socialism, 51% of voters expressed an unfavorable opinion and 31% expressed a favorable opinion. However, the opinion poll did not provide respondents with separate definitions of 'socialism' or 'democratic socialism'.

The NYT explained that these results show that although democratic socialists have achieved a series of meaningful victories against the mainstream Democratic establishment, the movement is still unpopular with the majority of the American people.

There are many concerns within the Democratic Party that the Democratic Socialists' recent progress in the party's primaries could lead to a loss of moderate votes and lead to defeat in the midterm elections.

This poll was conducted on 1,503 voters across the United States from the 8th to the 13th.