The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published its interim Economic Outlook report under the title "Coping with Back-to-back Shocks". According to the OECD's Economic Outlook report, the global economic outlook remains largely dependent on developments in the Middle East. The institution predicts that global economic growth will grow by 2.9 percent this year and 3 percent in 2027.
GROWTH EXPECTATION HAS BEEN CLEAR
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted that the Turkish economy would grow by 2.7 percent this year, while the growth in the global economy would be 2.9 percent.
According to the report, the global economy grew by 3.4 percent in 2025. The rate of economic growth slowed down in the first half of this year, but despite the negative effects of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, economic growth remained resilient in many countries.
The strong course of developments in the field of artificial intelligence also supported investment, production and trade.
But the global economic outlook remains largely dependent on whether a permanent solution is found to the war in the Middle East. Higher refinery margins resulting from production bottlenecks put additional upward pressure on consumer prices and operating costs.
In addition to energy prices, the prices of some agricultural products continue to remain high due to the impact of extreme weather conditions on supply.
Ongoing changes in trade policies, including tariffs and export restrictions, increase policy uncertainty, contributing to supply disruptions.
Long-term interest rates in many economies have risen to the highest level in at least 15 years, as concerns grow about long-term financial risks and heavy bond issuance by artificial intelligence companies.
With the impact of these developments, the OECD increased its global economic growth forecast for this year by 0.1 point to 2.9 percent compared to its June forecast, and revised its forecast for 2027 by 0.1 point to 3 percent.
Increasing price pressures, weakening real income growth and higher interest rates are expected to slow short-term growth momentum in many economies. However, economic activity is expected to strengthen slightly in 2027 due to continued investments in artificial intelligence and the expected decline in energy prices.
INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE IN THE SHORT TERM
Inflation is projected to accelerate globally in the short term, reflecting increases in commodity prices, but will gradually slow down in 2027 as the expected slowdown in energy prices and tightening monetary policy help limit general price pressures.
On the other hand, the OECD also warns that there is "significant uncertainty" regarding these forecasts, especially due to possible developments in the energy markets.
According to the agency, the course of oil and natural gas prices largely depends on the duration of supply disruptions, the degree of adaptation of producers and consumers, and geopolitical developments.
A faster normalization of energy markets could support economic activity while easing inflationary pressures. On the other hand, reoccurring or longer-lasting disruptions may cause inflation to accelerate and growth to weaken.
In this context, it is estimated that central banks may need to make additional adjustments in monetary policy in the face of energy price shock and inflation above the target.
DISINFLATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN Türkiye
OECD predicted that the Turkish economy, which grew by 3.7 percent in 2025, will grow by 2.7 percent this year. The institution's growth forecast for 2027 was 3.6 percent. These rates mean a downward revision of 0.4 points for 2026 and 0.2 points for 2027, according to the institution's June estimates.
OECD estimates that despite the negativities arising from the increase in energy and fertilizer prices in Türkiye, disinflation will continue and inflation will be 31.5 percent this year and 24.7 percent in 2027.
As disinflation continues, loosening monetary policy in some developing countries such as Türkiye and Brazil is expected to support economic growth.
THE HIGHEST GROWTH IS IN THE INDIAN ECONOMY
According to the OECD, economic growth in the United States is expected to be 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2027.
It is predicted that economic growth in the Eurozone will be 1 percent this year and in 2027, while in China this rate will be 4.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
It is estimated that the highest economic growth rate this year will be seen in India with 7.8 percent, followed by Indonesia with 5.2 percent.
It is estimated that the biggest economic contraction will occur in Saudi Arabia with minus 1.8 percent. While this rate corresponds to a downward revision of minus 5 points compared to the OECD's growth forecast in June, the post-war decline in Saudi Arabia's oil production and exports plays a decisive role in the economic contraction.
