
AI-generated summary
Oil prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions and weather-related supply disruptions. The Gulf of Mexico is an important region for oil production, while the Yemen conflict continues to lead to attacks on infrastructure in the region.
While oil prices provided relief yesterday, today they threaten to become the biggest burden on the stock market.
A tropical storm is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico, and Saudi Arabia reported another missile attack by the Houthi militia in Yemen. This caused the price of Brent oil to temporarily rise above $101 per barrel.
The rising oil prices are weighing on the stock exchanges in Asia. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index fell 0.7 percent, the South Korean Kospi lost 1.4 percent. The Shanghai stock exchange was closed due to the holiday.
The Asian markets cannot therefore benefit from further record highs on Wall Street. Both the broad S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 technology index reached new historic highs. At the end of trading, the S&P 500 had gained 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq 100 had gained 0.4 percent. The imagination surrounding artificial intelligence is unbroken.
The DAX is still likely to start the day with slight discounts. Yesterday evening, the German standard values had already fallen behind their closing levels from Xetra trading.
Investors should also keep an eye on what is happening on the bond markets, especially in France. There, concerns about the record-high level of debt eased yesterday, causing the yield on ten-year government bonds to fall to 4.75 percent.
But the problem remains. The French government is trying to pass an unpopular 2027 budget to reduce the deficit - a difficult task in a deeply divided parliament where political camps are positioning themselves for the upcoming presidential election.
Before the stock market opens, the data on German industrial production will be published in August. Investors are looking even more excitedly at the minutes of the Fed's most recent meeting in the evening, which promise further information about the US Federal Reserve's interest rate course. However, a large majority do not expect an interest rate increase at the interest rate meeting on October 28th.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Oil prices will remain above $100 a barrel in the near term if the tropical storm continues to impact production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Likely · Within days
The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on October 28th.
Very likely · Within weeks
The Ifo Institute reports that the fuel discount of 17 cents per liter has so far only been partially passed on to consumers. An average of 15 cents was passed on for diesel, a good 16 cents for the E5 premium petrol and 15 cents for the Super E10. The pass-through varies by day, remaining incomplete over the weekend and getting closer to the full amount again on Monday. Critics criticize the lack of targeting of the discount.
In Singapore, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned of continued high energy prices due to the Iran war and rising winter demand, even if the conflict ends soon. She called for a more restrictive monetary policy and criticized the lack of budget consolidation in highly indebted industrialized countries.
SpaceX plans to buy AI chips from Nvidia worth $40 billion, according to the Financial Times. To this end, ten billion dollars in bank loans and $30 billion in bonds are to be raised, led by the asset manager Apollo. Pimco is also involved in the discussions. Completion is expected in 2027.

On Wednesday, investors are hoping for new impetus from US interest rates. At the same time, developments on the bond markets continue to determine trading. The Dax closed Tuesday up 0.8 percent at 25,449 points, but was in the red before trading started. Investors await September Fed minutes, ECB speeches and German manufacturing data. In Asia, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed on markets, while US indices hit record highs. The US government is increasing a ten-year government bond by $39 billion.
China has criticized Germany and France for calling for new European safeguards against unfair trade practices. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron had jointly spoken out in favor of new protective instruments, with China suspected to be the background. The EU accuses China of state subsidies and overcapacity that make it difficult for European companies to compete.

The China shock has a double impact on the German economy: cheap imports are flooding markets and the Chinese market is becoming unattractive for European companies. The German car industry in particular is suffering, while VW, BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Porsche together recorded a 27 percent decline in sales in China.