Oil prices stable despite conflict: Why expert forecasts did not come true

Experts predicted oil prices of up to $200 per barrel because of the war. The IEA and EU warned of bottlenecks. Handelsblatt explains why these forecasts did not come true.

US attack on the “M/T Kylo”: Explosions on the Iranian oil tanker can be seen in this video still released by the US military. According to the US military, the ship sank in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday night. Photo: via REUTERS

Brussels, Frankfurt, Paris. Although the USA and Iran are attacking each other again these days, the price of oil is only trading at 95 dollars per barrel (159 liters). On a weekly basis there is an increase of six percent. The US military recently reported that it had sunk the Iranian oil tanker “M/T Kylo”.

A few months ago, prices would have reacted to such news in a more extreme way: At the start of the Iran war at the end of February, the price shot up from $72 to more than $119 within a few days. Some analysts considered an oil price of $200 per barrel to be realistic.

Now it seems as if the market has become dull. Oil exports from the Gulf region are still only around two-thirds of the pre-war level of 20 million barrels a day.

Why has the oil market developed so fundamentally differently than many experts expected? The answer lies in an interaction of several factors. Handelsblatt answers the most important questions.