Packers vs. Falcons Preview: SportsLine Model Favors Over 43.5 Points in TNF Matchup
Quick Look
- The Green Bay Packers (1-1) host the Atlanta Falcons (0-2) in a Thursday Night Football matchup at Lambeau Field, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m.
- The SportsLine projection model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, projects over 43.5 total points in 59% of simulations and favors one side of the spread in over 60% of runs.
- Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite, led by Jordan Love’s 532 passing yards and four touchdowns, while Atlanta starts Michael Penix Jr. at QB and relies on Bijan Robinson’s 155 rushing yards through two games.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Packers entered the game with a 1-1 record after an overtime win over the Jets, while the Falcons fell to 0-2 following a loss to Carolina. Green Bay’s offense has been led by Jordan Love’s passing, and Atlanta’s rushing attack features Bijan Robinson.
The Green Bay Packers open their home schedule with a key NFC matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on 'Thursday Night Football.' Green Bay (1-1) is coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the New York Jets, while Atlanta (0-2) dropped a 34-3 decision to Carolina on Sunday. Michael Penix Jr. will get the start for Atlanta at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa also active. Green Bay receiver Jayden Reed (neck) has been ruled out. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The latest Packers vs. Falcns odds have Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 43. Green Bay is at -248 on the money line (risk $248 to win $100). Before making any Falcons vs. Packers picks or 'Thursday Night Football' predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zoned in on Falcons vs. Packers. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Falcons:
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Top Falcons vs. Packers predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Falcons vs. Packers, the model is going Over 43.5 points at betting apps. The Packers and Falcons have had no problem putting up points against one another. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Over has gone 7-3. The Over has also hit in six of Green Bay's past 10 games, including two of its last three games.
Running back Bijan Robinson powers the Atlanta rushing attack. Through two games, he leads the Falcons with 155 yards rushing on 37 carries, including a long of 20 yards. Green Bay, meanwhile, is led by quarterback Jordan Love, who has thrown for 532 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception. The model projects 48 combined points, giving value to the Over in 59% of simulations. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make 'Thursday Night Football' picks
In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread is hitting in over 60% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The over/under of 43.5 points will be exceeded
Likely · Within hours
One side of the point spread will hit
Likely · Within hours
Open Questions
- Will Michael Penix Jr. perform adequately as a starting quarterback for Atlanta?
- Can Green Bay maintain offensive production without Jayden Reed?
- Will the over/under of 43.5 points be exceeded based on recent trends?
