Packers vs. Patriots prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 9 NFL picks by advanced model

The Green Bay Packers (5-3) visit the New England Patriots (5-3) in an important NFL Week 9 showdown. Both teams have rebounded from 1-2 starts to win four of their last five, setting up a tight NFC-AFC showdown of contenders. It's a marquee matchup of quarterbacks; Jordan Love leads the NFL in passing yards, while Drake Maye was recently named AFC Offensive Player of the Month for October. This is the first matchup between the QBs and MVP contenders. The Pats have ruled out running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness) and receiver A.J. Brown (ankle/knee), while Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins are listed as questionable.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The latest Packers vs. Patriots odds have New England as a 3-point favorite. The over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Green Bay is 5-3 versus the spread this season, while New England is 3-4-1 versus the line. Before making any Patriots vs. Packers picks, be sure to see the Packers vs. Patriots predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Packers vs. Patriots. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Packers:

Top Packers vs. Patriots predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Patriots vs. Packers, the model is going Under 44.5 points (-105) at betting apps. The last five New England games have gone Over the number, while the last five involving Green Bay have finished Under.

Love leads the NFL in passing yards (2,246) with 16 TDs and has thrived attacking downfield to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. The Packers' run game ranks last in the league, however, so the offense is one-dimensional. Green Bay's opportunistic defense (15 takeaways, second in the NFL) will test Drake Maye, who has paced a Pats offense scoring 29.6 ppg the last five outings.

But New England faces significant headwinds with Brown and Henderson out and Hunter Henry (foot) listed as questionable. The model projects 43 combined points as the Under hits 56% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Packers picks

In addition to staying Under, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.