
AI-generated summary
The CDU suffered heavy defeats in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin, including missing out on entry into the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament for the first time. The party is polling below 20 percent in federal polls, well below the election result of 28.5 percent in the 2025 federal election.
Berlin. Three lost state elections, poll numbers below 20 percent and a clearly ailing Chancellor and party leader Friedrich Merz: The CDU is looking for ways out of one of the most serious crises in its history at a leadership retreat on Sunday and Monday (starting at 1 p.m.). The meeting of the party executive committee with its approximately 25 members was scheduled after the CDU was thrown out of a state parliament for the first time in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania at the end of September.
The discussion will be about how one can specifically respond to the dissatisfaction among the population with the work of the black-red federal government. But the long-term strategic direction will also be an issue.
"It's a disaster." With these words, Merz commented on the result of the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania shortly after 6 p.m. on the evening of September 20th - when it was not yet clear that the CDU would fail at the five percent hurdle in a state election for the first time. In Berlin she was pushed out of first place that same evening by the Left, which is now trying to form a government with the SPD and the Greens.
At the federal level, too, the CDU has sunk to unprecedented depths. In several surveys, 17 months after the black-red federal government was sworn in, it is below 20 percent - compared to 28.5 percent in the election at the beginning of 2025.
There will initially be a long discussion at the meeting - especially about the consequences of the elections. Will the strict reform course continue, for example in pensions, care and health? And what else is necessary?
“We have to take care of all the issues that are important for normal people: cost of living, security, migration, jobs,” said Hesse’s Prime Minister Boris Rhein before the “Welt am Sonntag” retreat. Thuringia's Prime Minister Mario Voigt specifically called for a reduction in the cost of living: "We have to talk about how people can make life affordable again."
But it is also likely to be about more fundamental questions for the Union. Does the CDU have to become more conservative in order to win back voters? Or vice versa? And what happens next with the firewall towards the AfD and the Left?
The aftermath of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin is becoming an ever greater burden for the black-red coalition. This is also likely to play a role in the exam. The SPD suspects CDU MPs of co-electing the AfD state parliament president in Saxony-Anhalt and thus breaking a taboo.
In return, the Union warns the SPD against collaborating with the left in Berlin, which it sees as extremist. Wolfram Weimer, Minister of State for Culture in the Chancellery and Merz confidant, sees the explorations in Berlin as a direct test for the coalition. “If the SPD party leaders do not immediately and clearly stop a left-wing alliance in Berlin, then that would be a vote of no confidence in our coalition,” he told “Bild”.
Merz may get the most support from someone who is not a member of the CDU: former Federal President Joachim Gauck is invited to dinner as a guest. He recently vehemently opposed calls for Merz to resign in a top-level discussion with “Spiegel”. “If he wanted to do that now, then he would be a complete political idiot,” said the 86-year-old. "That would really be totally damaging. Because any residual trust, especially among those who voted for him, would suffer greatly and would be minimized even further."
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The CDU will decide at the meeting whether to adjust its political course in order to regain lost voter trust.
Likely · Within days
Tensions between the CDU and SPD regarding the formation of a government in Berlin are expected to continue to increase.
Very likely · Within weeks

The CDU is in a deep crisis: poor election results, record-low poll numbers for Chancellor Merz and tense coalition sentiment are weighing on the party. Before the presidential retreat, CSU leader Horst Seehofer sharply criticized Merz for broken election promises, especially on tax cuts, and accused him of a massive loss of credibility. Merz's statements about work ethic in Germany are also met with rejection in Bavaria because they ignore the reality of employees who want to work more but receive termination contracts.
The CDU is calling on the SPD to throw Gerhard Schröder out of the party because of his visit to Vladimir Putin. SPD members express skepticism about a new party expulsion process, while critics describe Schröder's behavior as morally disturbing.
Former Left Party leader Dietmar Bartsch has rejected criticism from around 120 party members of the agreement between the Berlin Left, the Greens and the SPD on how to deal with anti-Semitism. He emphasized that the critics had no coalition experience and mainly came from the West, and warned against instrumentalizing the issue in connection with the Berlin election results.

The average duration of asylum claims proceedings before German administrative courts rose to 15.3 months in the first half of 2025, after 14.3 months in the previous year. Saxony has the longest procedure duration at 20.4 months, while Rhineland-Palatinate decides the fastest at 9.2 months. The increase is attributed to higher case numbers, complex countries of origin and a deteriorating human rights situation in countries such as Iran, Russia, Afghanistan and Turkey. At the same time, the BAMF is processing asylum applications slightly faster than in the previous year.

After the loss of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the collapse of the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, party leader Friedrich Merz is facing a loss of trust within the party. He emphasizes the firewall against the AfD, while some MPs are said to have cooperated with right-wing extremists. At the retreat, CDU leaders discuss the future course, social justice and how to deal with internal dissidents.

In Berlin, the Left, the Greens and the SPD could form a coalition, with explorations set to start soon. The non-party Minister of State for Culture Wolfram Weimer, who is close to the CDU, is calling on the SPD leadership to prevent a red-green-red alliance, otherwise he would see this as a vote of no confidence in the federal government. SPD General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf rejects this and criticizes the Union for possible cooperation with right-wing extremists in Saxony-Anhalt. Green Party politician Omid Nouripour also warns of the left as a security risk due to anti-Semitic incidents and criminal contacts.