Politics almost always works under maximum pressure. The President of the Government is facing one of his most serious crises and at the worst possible moment, on the verge of general elections that could be held in a few months if he finally brings them forward so that the general elections are voted before the regional and municipal elections, as some presidents and mayors ask him to do. The entry of 72,000 immigrants at once into Ceuta and a highly discussed subsequent management have left the Executive very shaken.
Sources from La Moncloa admit that Pedro Sánchez knows that the majority of the Spanish population, including the left and many PSOE voters, blame Morocco. He insists that he cannot do so without evidence, because it is not responsible to unleash a diplomatic or even military conflict with uncontrollable consequences without having clear proof that Rabat organized, promoted or directed the jump on July 30 and 31.
But this Thursday in Congress, faced with that enormous pressure, Sánchez gave a clear change in the tone he had used on Monday in the interview on Cadena SER. And in the chamber, for the first time, he opened the door to blaming Morocco and, in that case, making serious decisions. Faced with an opposition that accuses him of being "blackmailed" by Rabat - because, as Feijóo maintained without evidence, the secret services of this country would have found something unmentionable on the president's cell phone when they spied on him -, Sánchez went to the Lower House to try to demonstrate the opposite: that he is not afraid of anyone, and that in the same way that he has confronted the United States or Israel - two of the most influential countries in the world, especially due to the massacre in Gaza or his refusal to increase Defense spending to 5% - he is not afraid of a clash with Morocco if that is what suits national interests.
With this idea, the promise to declassify all the secret reports of the National Intelligence Center (CNI) and other organizations on this tragedy that caused the death of 141 people, the news that the Moroccan ambassador was summoned on August 21 and a promise that the collaboration with Rabat will be reconsidered because it is evident that something has failed miserably, Sánchez tried in Congress to reduce the enormous pressure; and not only that which comes from the opposition, but from the left and from his own voters, or at least from the part of them that does not quite understand why the president continues to have good words towards Morocco after the inaction of its police, due to inability or decision, has generated a humanitarian, social and political problem of the first magnitude in Ceuta and throughout the country, and has completely discredited his turn of approach to Rabat in 2021.
"Sánchez gave up the traditional position of the PSOE on the Sahara in exchange for something like this massive jump not being able to happen. He did it so that 10,000 people would never enter again, which is what happened in 2021, and now we have had an entry eight times greater. Something has to change, and the president knows it," says a member of the Sumar Government. In this group, very critical of Sánchez's proximity to Rabat, they trust that this Thursday a shift has begun that will take the head of the Executive further away from the neighboring regime.
At La Moncloa they explain, however, that what Sánchez is doing is not a move away from Rabat, but rather a reasonable explanation of his prudent position. This step involves waiting for the secret services to finish the ongoing investigation to determine with some certainty whether it was Rabat or not. For now, the president insists that the serious reports he has on the table do not clearly point to Moroccan responsibility.
The Government has disavowed the report that the National Center for Immigration and Borders (CENIF) of the National Police sent to a judge of the National Court, because it believes that without information on the ground no solid conclusions can be reached, and it considers that only the CNI has it with its spies in Morocco. And, in any case, it did not categorically attribute intellectual authorship to Rabat, just a collaboration of some agents.
Tone change
The truth is that the president's tone has changed. He continues to say that he has no evidence that points to the Alawite kingdom, but he is increasingly open to that happening in the future. "If there was evidence [of Rabat's participation], we would act accordingly. This Government is not afraid to confront other foreign powers. But we are going to work loaded with proven facts," insists the president. And it also takes another leap that the Government had not made these days. He admits that he knows that the majority of citizens are suspicious of Morocco, and clearly points out that this country left the border unattended. "We know that on July 30, the gendarmerie allowed the crossing of the border. And that they then controlled it. What was the reason for the lack of control? Was there inability or inaction? Our intelligence services will find all the keys. We are going to make all the reports public. At the moment, none of these institutions has provided solid evidence that Morocco planned or executed this episode," Sánchez said.
The president is opening the door to a definitive report from the secret services that will cause a radical change in the situation. But for now, he wants to avoid conflict at all costs because it seems very risky. And he also believes that it is what anyone who was in La Moncloa would do. Sánchez recalled that when they were presidents, both José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy were very careful not to antagonize Morocco and neither of them visited Ceuta and Melilla officially - he has done so four times - nor did they allow the King to go to the autonomous cities, something that only José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero did in 2007 and he will do "in a few weeks." This visit could open the door to an escalation with Morocco, which in 2007 already withdrew its ambassador due to the presence of the head of state in a territory in Africa that it does not recognize as Spanish.
The most established analysis in Government circles is that Sánchez is defending the only responsible option, that of avoiding a conflict with Morocco, which also continues to be fundamental for the return of the thousands of immigrants who still remain in Ceuta, older and younger, but at the same time it is a very weak position because the majority of society does not understand or share it, and holds Rabat responsible for this disaster. The Executive admits the weakness of the moment, but hopes to see the light at the end of the tunnel in the coming weeks, when all immigrants leave the streets because they have a decent place to sleep, returns begin, financial aid arrives, classes begin and a certain normality returns to Ceuta.
The opposition, on the contrary, will try to stretch this crisis to the maximum and believes that it has finally found the blow that will finish off Sánchez. The wear and tear of an impossible crisis that the Government has not been able to manage well seems inevitable, but only time will determine its dimension. Of course, this time there is not much time margin, because the elections are already beginning to be on the horizon.
