The perception about the economy helps to explain the lowered ceiling of voting intentions for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the final stretch of the first round and the increased chances of his main opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
According to experts, although the economy is going through a favorable macroeconomic moment, the government has failed to convert these indicators into political capital, opening the way for the opposition to react.
In the assessment of Sérgio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados and columnist for Folha, the economy is experiencing a good moment in terms of activity, employment and income generation, offering concrete data that could support a positive perception among the electorate.
This diagnosis is in line with the analysis of political scientist Antônio Lavareda, for whom the government's main mistake was not having contested the economic narrative.
By letting news about debt, default and high prices dominate the debate, Palácio do Planalto allowed the perception of the economy to become significantly worse than the assessment that Brazilians make of their own lives and, mainly, their optimism about the future.
"The government never faced the opposition's narrative that the economy is on the wrong track. This type of propaganda did not exist," says Lavareda.
The opposition, on the other hand, would have been effective in exploiting the perception that food remains expensive, with Flávio Bolsonaro appearing in supermarkets and using spots on the internet and television.
For Vale, this strategy, combined with the dissemination of fake news on social networks, makes it difficult for the population to notice the improvement in indicators.
He also states that there is a certain "fatigue" in relation to Lula, who also ended up being harmed by the recent crisis involving the STF. Vale compares this environment to an institutional "mini 2013", a reference to the protests in the country that year. "In this scenario, Lula's economy can do a lot, but it can't do everything," he says.
For José Márcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos, despite good employment and income indicators, family debt has weighed heavily on voters' economic perception.
"There was a spread of credit with greater banking access, which has come since the Jair Bolsonaro government. This bill has arrived", he says. "There is also a tiredness in relation to Lula's speech, even more in the form than in the content."
Data from the CNC (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism) show that 82% of families had debts due in August, the highest level in the historical series started in 2010. The index was 79% in the same month of 2022. The share of families in default reached 29.9%.
In terms of economic perception, although 43% of Brazilians rate their financial situation as excellent or good, almost half consider it to be regular, and a similar portion say that the money available is not enough to maintain the budget.
According to a Datafolha survey, 45% classify their personal and family financial situation as fair, while 12% say it is bad or terrible.
When the question deals specifically with income, 34% say that the money they earn, in addition to that of the family, is not enough and sometimes it is missing. Another 15% say that the income is very low and brings many difficulties. In total, therefore, 49% report some degree of financial insufficiency.
The situation is particularly unfavorable among the segments that account for the majority of the electorate. Only 36% of respondents with primary education consider their financial situation to be excellent or good. The percentage drops to 33% among those with a family income of up to two minimum wages and to 32% in classes D and E.
There is, however, an important paradox: even among the groups that evaluate their current situation worst, the expectation of improvement predominates: 65% of members of classes D and E believe that their financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, as do 62% of those interviewed with primary education. In the population as a whole, 71% expect some improvement.
In relation to food prices, a factor that weighs heavily on poorer voters, according to a survey by economist Bruno Imaizumi, from 4intelligence, the purchasing power of the minimum wage in relation to the basic food basket has improved since 2022.
In August 2026, the minimum wage of R$1,621 bought the equivalent of 1.8 basic food baskets in São Paulo, compared to 1.62 in August 2022.
The same happens with income from work. The average Brazilian income reached R$3,777 in the quarter ended in August. The value purchased 4.07 basic baskets, up from 3.54 in August 2022.
In the last Datafolha poll before the vote, Lula appears with 47% of the total votes in the second round, against 46% for Flávio, in a tie within the margin of error of two percentage points. In the previous survey, the PT member had 48%, and the opponent, 45%.
Flávio's curve, however, is upward. In around ten days, the candidate made consistent progress in practically all groups considered most sensitive by Bolsonarism, including the middle class, Southeast, men and evangelicals.
