Datafolha research shows a technical tie between Raquel Lyra and João Campos in the electoral dispute
Quick Look
- A Datafolha survey released on the eve of the election indicates that Raquel Lyra (PSD) has 49% of the valid votes and João Campos (PSB) 48%, with a margin of error that keeps the two technically tied.
- Ivan Moraes (Psol) and Renan Hallais (Missão) have 1% each, while white, null and undecided people account for 7%.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Datafolha research released on the eve of the election shows the dispute between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB) technically tied within the margin of error, with both oscillating between 47% and 51% for Lyra and 46% and 50% for Campos.
Raquel Lyra, from the PSD, had 48% on September 24th. It went to 46%; and maintained 46%. In the margin of error, from 44% to 48%. João Campos, from PSB, had 44% in the last two polls; and now it has 45%. At the margin, from 43% to 47%. Raquel Lyra and João Campos are technically tied within the margin of error. Ivan Moraes, from Psol, and Renan Hallais, from Missão, have 1%. The other candidates did not score. Blank, null or none: 4%. Undecided people make up 3%.
On the eve of the election, Datafolha states that the dispute remains undefined in terms of valid votes. Raquel Lyra, from the PSD, has 49%. Considering the margin of error, it can range from 47% to 51%. João Campos, from PSB, 48%. With the margin, from 46% to 50%. Raquel Lyra and João Campos are technically tied within the margin of error. Ivan Moraes, from Psol, and Renan Hallais, from Missão, have 1%. The other candidates did not score.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The election will only have a defined result after the votes are counted, considering the technical tie within the margin of error.
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- What will be the final result of the election considering the undecided voters?
- How can blank and invalid votes affect the result?
- Was there a significant change in voting intentions in relation to previous polls?
