Datafolha research shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of valid votes in the DF, followed by Lula with 37%

Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado, Renan Santos, Cury and Zema — Photo: Reproduction

Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic is going in the Federal District

Valid votes

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 49%

Lula (PT): 37%

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6%

Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%

Renan Santos (Mission): 3%

Samara Martins (UP): 1%

Romeu Zema (New): 1%

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%

Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%

Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%

Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%

Clariana Barão (DC): 0%

Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S. Paulo and interviewed 1,620 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under numbers DF-07243/2026 and BR-09812/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters. Below, the stimulated poll, in which the names of the candidates are shown to voters:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 47% (was 44%)

Lula (PT): 35% (was 35%)

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6% (was 9%)

Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3% (was 3%)

Renan Santos (Mission): 3% (was 3%)

Samara Martins (UP): 1% (was 1%)

Romeu Zema (New): 1% (was 1%)

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% (was 0%)

Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)

Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)

Clariana Barão (DC): 0% (was 0%)

Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% (was 0%)

Blank/null/none: 3% (was 3%)

Undecided: 1% (was 2%)

2nd round scenario

Datafolha also simulated a 2nd round scenario between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. See the numbers:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 55% (was 51%)

Lula (PT): 38% (was 39%)

Undecided: 1% (was 2%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 8%)