G11 hour agoPolitics1 min readBrazil

Quaest research points to a technical tie between Lula and Flávio for the second round

Quick Look

Quaest research commissioned by Globo and O Globo shows a technical tie between Lula and Flávio, with a difference within the margin of error of 2 percentage points, indicating a likely second round.
The survey interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over between October 2nd and 3rd, with a confidence level of 95% and registration BR-02197/2026 with the Electoral Court.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The survey was commissioned by Globo and O Globo to measure voting intentions in the 2026 elections, considering only valid votes, according to the Electoral Court methodology.

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The numbers indicate a technical tie, because the difference between them is within the margin of error, and a likely second round between Lula and Flávio, according to Quaest.

The calculation of valid votes follows the way in which the Electoral Court publishes official election results, without considering blank and invalid votes and abstentions.

The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo and interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-02197/2026.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Second round between Lula and Flávio in the 2026 elections
Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

What is the exact percentage of voting intentions for each candidate?
How do rejection rates compare between Lula and Flávio?
What is the distribution of the vote by region and age group?

Quaest research points to a technical tie between Lula and Flávio for the second round

Quick Look

Quaest research commissioned by Globo and O Globo shows a technical tie between Lula and Flávio, with a difference within the margin of error of 2 percentage points, indicating a likely second round.
The survey interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over between October 2nd and 3rd, with a confidence level of 95% and registration BR-02197/2026 with the Electoral Court.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The survey was commissioned by Globo and O Globo to measure voting intentions in the 2026 elections, considering only valid votes, according to the Electoral Court methodology.

Font size

The numbers indicate a technical tie, because the difference between them is within the margin of error, and a likely second round between Lula and Flávio, according to Quaest.

The calculation of valid votes follows the way in which the Electoral Court publishes official election results, without considering blank and invalid votes and abstentions.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Second round between Lula and Flávio in the 2026 elections
Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

What is the exact percentage of voting intentions for each candidate?
How do rejection rates compare between Lula and Flávio?
What is the distribution of the vote by region and age group?

Quaest research points to a technical tie between Lula and Flávio for the second round

Quick Look

Why It Matters

What to Watch

Open Questions

Related Topics

Quaest research points to a technical tie between Lula and Flávio for the second round

Quick Look

Why It Matters

What to Watch

Open Questions

Related Topics

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