Delegate André David, Rogério Carvalho, André Moura and Delegate Alessandro — Photo: Montagem g1
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Sergipe. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Delegate André David (Republicans), with 20% and Rogério Carvalho (PT), with 19%, lead the dispute for valid votes.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 52% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Delegate André David (Republicans): 20%
Rogério Carvalho (PT): 19%
André Moura (União): 17%
Delegate Alessandro (MDB): 17%
Eduardo Amorim (Republicans): 10%
Edvaldo (PDT): 6%
Rodrigo Valadares (PL):5%
Coronel Rocha (PL): 4%
Iran Barbosa (PSOL): 1%
Renatinha (DC): 1%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Delegate André David (Republicans): 16% (it was 11% in the previous survey)
Rogério Carvalho (PT): 15% (was 10%)
André Moura (União Brasil): 14% (was 12%)
Delegate Alessandro (MDB): 14% (was 10%)
Eduardo Amorim (Republicans): 8% (was 8%)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT): 5% (was 5%)
Rodrigo Valadares (PL): 4% (was 5%)
Coronel Rocha (PL): 3% (was 2%)
Renatinha (Christian Democracy): 1% (was 1%)
Iran Barbosa (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
White/null/will not vote: 13% (was 17%)
Undecided: 6% (was 18%)
Vote for 1st place
Delegate André David (Republicans): 20% (it was 13% in the previous survey)
Rogério Carvalho (PT): 20% (was 13%)
André Moura (União Brasil): 16% (was 15%)
Delegate Alessandro (MDB): 12% (was 10%)
Eduardo Amorim (Republicans): 7% (was 7%)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT): 4% (was 4%)
Rodrigo Valadares (PL): 5% (was 6%)
Coronel Rocha (PL): 2% (was 2%)
Renatinha (Christian Democracy): 1% (was 0%)
Iran Barbosa (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 10% (was 14%)
Undecided: 3% (was 15%)
Vote for 2nd place
Delegate André David (Republicans): 12% (it was 8% in the previous survey)
Rogério Carvalho (PT): 10% (was 8%)
André Moura (União Brasil): 12% (it was 9% in the previous survey)
Delegate Alessandro (MDB): 16% (was 9%)
Eduardo Amorim (Republicans): 9% (was 8%)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT): 5% (was 3%)
Rodrigo Valadares (PL): 3% (was 3%)
Coronel Rocha (PL): 4% (was 3%)
Renatinha (Christian Democracy): 1% (was 2%)
Iran Barbosa (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 16% (was 20%)
Undecided: 10% (was 22%)
Vote decision
For 79%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 20% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 79% (was 67%)
May change: 20% (was 33%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
Spontaneous search
Rogério Carvalho (PT): 9% (it was 6% in the previous survey)
Delegate Alessandro (MDB): 7% (was 5%)
Delegate André David (Republicans): 7% (was 4%)
André Moura (União Brasil): 7% (was 6%)
Eduardo Amorim (Republicans): 4% (was 3%)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT): 3% (was 2%)
Rodrigo Valadares (PL): 2% (was 2%)
Coronel Rocha (PL): 1% (was 1%)
Iran Barbosa (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Renatinha (Christian Democracy): 0% (was 0%)
Paulinho from União Tur (Christian Democracy): 0% (was 0%) *
Blank/null/will not vote: 7% (was 12%)
Undecided: 52% (was 58%)
*Paulinho from União Tur (DC) announced the withdrawal of his candidacy for the senate before registering this research with the Electoral Court. Therefore, it is not included in the current survey, as decided by the Electoral Court.
The survey was commissioned by TV Sergipe and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number SE 00957/2026.
