Quaest survey shows Arthur Henrique with 64% of valid votes in Roraima, on the eve of the 1st round

Quaest in Roraima: Arthur Henrique, 57%; Soldier Sampaio; 32% — Photo: Disclosure/Advisories

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Roraima is going. Arthur Henrique (PL) appears isolated with 64% and could win in the first round.

Valid votes

Arthur Henrique (PL): 64%

Soldier Sampaio (Republicans): 34%

Farah Mesquita (Solidarity): 1%

Rosi Aires (PSOL): 1%

Genuine Clébio (PCO): 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.

The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number RR-08283/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.

Arthur Henrique (PL): 59% (it was 57% on September 25)

Soldier Sampaio (Republicans): 33% (was 32%)

Farah Mesquita (Solidarity): 1% (was 0%)

Rosi Aires (PSOL): 1% (was 2%)

Genuine Clébio (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Undecided: 3% (was 7%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 3% (was 2%)

Spontaneous search

Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.

These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Arthur Henrique (PL): 55% (was 47%)

Soldier Sampaio (Republicans): 29% (was 30%)

Undecided: 14% (was 22%)

White/null/will not vote: 1% (was 0%)

Others: 1% (was 1%)

Vote decision

Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 89% say the decision is final. Another 11% say they can still change their mind.

Choice is final: 89% (was 85%)

Could change: 11% (was 15%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 0% (was 0%)

2nd round scenario

Quaest also simulated a 2nd round scenario. See the numbers:

Arthur Henrique (PL): 59% (was 58%)

Soldier Sampaio (Republicans): 33% (was 33%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 4% (was 4%)

Undecided: 4% (was 5%)

Interest in elections

The survey also asked about voter interest in the elections:

Very interested: 45% (was 36%)

Not very interested: 37% (was 48%)

Not interested at all: 16% (was 15%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 2% (was 1%)

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