Cid, Luizianne, Captain Wagner and Alcides — Photo: Thiago Gadelha/ SVM
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Ceará. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Candidate Cid Gomes (PSB) has 32% of the valid votes, Luizianne Lins (Rede) has 27%, Capitão Wagner (União) has 26% and Alcides Fernandes (PL) has 13%.
Luizianne and Wagner are in a technical draw within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 23% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search: valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Cid Gomes (PSB): 32%
Luizianne (Network): 27%
Captain Wagner (União): 26%
Alcides Fernandes (PL): 13%
Catarina Matos (UP): 1%
Guilherme Theophilo (New): 1%
Lino Alves (PCO): 0%
Reginaldo (PSTU): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Stimulated poll: total votes
Now see the number of total votes, which includes blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Cid Gomes (PSB): 25% (was 25% on September 23)
Luizianne (Network): 21% (was 19%)
Captain Wagner (União): 20% (was 21%)
Alcides Fernandes (PL): 10% (was 8%)
Catarina Matos (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Guilherme Theophilo (New): 1% (was 0%)
Lino Alves (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Reginaldo (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 10% (was 10%)
Blank/null/none: 12% (was 16%)
Vote for 1st place
Cid Gomes (PSB): 27%
Captain Wagner (União): 23%
Luizianne (Network): 20%
Alcides Fernandes (PL): 9%
Catarina Matos (UP): 2%
Guilherme Theophilo (New): 1%
Lino Alves (PCO): 0%
Reginaldo (PSTU): 0%
Undecided: 9%
Blank/null/none: 9%
Vote for 2nd place
Cid Gomes (PSB): 22%
Luizianne (Network): 22%
Captain Wagner (União): 17%
Alcides Fernandes (PL): 11%
Catarina Matos (UP): 1%
Guilherme Theophilo (New): 1%
Lino Alves (PCO): 0%
Reginaldo (PSTU): 0%
Undecided: 11%
Blank/null/none: 15%
Vote decision
For 18%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 82% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 82% (it was 68% on September 23)
Could change: 18% (was 31%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 0% (was 1%)
Spontaneous search
See now the results of the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.
Cid Gomes (PSB): 20% (it was 10% on September 23)
Luizianne (Network): 17% (was 9%)
Captain Wagner (União): 17% (was 7%)
Alcides Fernandes (PL): 9% (was 5%)
Catarina Matos (UP): 1% (was 0%)
Guilherme Theophilo (New): 1% (was 0%)
Reginaldo (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Lino Alves (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Others: 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 23% (was 65%)
Blank/null/none: 12% (was 4%)
The survey was commissioned by TV Verdes Mares and interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number CE-04790/2026.
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