G11 hour agoPolitics1 min readBrazil

Quaest survey shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Rio de Janeiro

Quick Look

Quaest research commissioned by Globo reveals Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 37% of voting intentions for president in Rio de Janeiro, followed by Lula (PT) with 30%.
In a second round scenario, Bolsonaro has 44% against Lula's 36% among voters in Rio de Janeiro.
Survey interviewed 1,302 people between September 19 and 22, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and 95% confidence.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Stimulated voting intention survey for president carried out in the state of Rio de Janeiro, focusing on the 2026 elections.

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In the scenario of the stimulated voting intention survey for president, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 37% of voting intentions, and Lula (PT), with 30%. Augusto Cury (Avante), 4%; Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), 3%; and Renan Santos (Missão), with 2%, appear next. Romeu Zema (Novo) and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) appear with 1%.

The research was contracted by Globo. Quaest interviewed 1,302 people aged 16 and over between September 19th and 22nd. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol RJ-04982/2026.

For 82% of voters interviewed, the choice of candidate is final. Another 18% say they can still change their vote until the elections on October 4th.

In a possible 2nd round, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 44% of voting intentions among Rio de Janeiro voters, against 36% for Lula.

In this 2nd round scenario, the survey showed that 16% will vote blank, null or will not vote. Another 4% are still undecided about voting in the 2nd round.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Flávio Bolsonaro will win the first round in Rio de Janeiro if current trends continue.
Likely · Within weeks
The second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will be held in Rio de Janeiro.
Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

How would research behave at a national level?
What is the rejection rate for each candidate?
How can undecided voters influence the final result?