Quaest survey shows Mailza Assis leading with 41% of valid votes in Acre, on the eve of the 1st round

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for government is going in Acre. Mailza Assis (PP) leads with 41% of valid votes, followed by Alan Rick (Republicans), who has 37%.

Valid votes:

Mailza Assis (PP): 41%

Alan Rick (Republicans): 37%

Tião Bocalom (PSDB): 16%

Thor Dantas (PSB): 5%

Dr. Luisinho (Agir): 1%

Eudo Raffael (PCB): 0%

Mailza Assis (PP) and Alan Rick (Republicans) — Photo: Reproduction

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.

The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number AC-02370/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.

Mailza Assis (PP): 36% (it was 36% in the previous survey)

Alan Rick (Republicans): 33% (was 28%)

Tião Bocalom (PSDB): 16% (was 15%)

Thor Dantas (PSB): 5% (was 2%)

Dr. Luisinho (Agir): 1% (was 0%)

Eudo Raffael (PCB): 0% (was 0%)

Undecided: 4% (was 13%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 6%)

Spontaneous search

Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.

These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Mailza Assis (PP): 26% (it was 24% in the previous survey)

Alan Rick (Republicans): 23% (was 20%)

Tião Bocalom (PSDB): 9% (was 6%)

Thor Dantas (PSB): 3% (was 1%)

Dr. Luisinho (Act): 0% (was 0%)

Eudo Raffael (PCB): 0% (was 1%)

Undecided: 34% (was 47%)

White/null/will not vote: 4% (was 1%)

Vote decision

Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 79% say the decision is final. Another 20% say they can still change their mind.

Choice is final: 79% (was 74%)

May change: 20% (was 25%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1%

Interest in the election

Very interested: 40%

Not very interested: 38%

Not interested at all: 19%

Don't know/didn't answer: 3%

2nd round scenarios

Quaest also simulated three 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:

Mailza Assis x Alan Rick

Mailza Assis (PP): 43% (was 46%)

Alan Rick (Republicans): 38% (was 34%)

Blank/null/none: 8% (was 8%)

Undecided: 11% (was 12%)

Mailza Assis x Tião Bocalom

Mailza Assis (PP): 49% (was 53%)

Tião Bocalom (PSDB): 22% (was 24%)

Blank/null/none: 15% (was 13%)

Undecided: 14% (was 27%)

Alan Rick x Tião Bocalom

Alan Rick (Republicans): 45% (was 45%)

Tião Bocalom (PSDB): 26% (was 28%)

Blank/null/none: 15% (was 15%)

Undecided: 14% (was 12%)

Review Acre’s news programs