Candidates for the Senate for Roraima: Nicoletti, Teresa Surita, Helena da Asatur, Chico Rodrigues — Photo: Assessrias/Disclosure
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Roraima. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Nicoletti (PL) and Teresa Surita (MDB) appear technically tied in valid votes, with 26% and 25% respectively. Helena da Asatur (PSD) comes next, with 19%.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 38% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Nicoletti (PL): 26%
Teresa Surita (MDB): 25%
Helena da Asatur (PSD): 19%
Chico Rodrigues (PSB): 15%
Hélio Fernando Barbosa Lopes (PL): 9%
Regina Tio Ivo (New): 4%
Hilton Xavier (Avante): 1%
Pastor Isamar (União): 1%
Barô Macuxi (PSOL): 0%
Hipérion de Oliveira (PV): 0%
Márcio Junqueira (PSDB): 0%
Mário Rocha (PSOL): 0%
Rogério Miranda (DC): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Read more:
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Nicoletti (PL): 24% (it was 19% on September 25th)
Teresa Surita (MDB): 23% (was 22%)
Helena da Asatur (PSD): 18% (was 17%)
Chico Rodrigues (PSB): 14% (was 14%)
Hélio Fernando Barbosa Lopes (PL): 5% (was 2%)
Regina Tio Ivo (New): 4% (was 3%)
Pastor Isamar (União): 3% (was 3%)
Márcio Junqueira (PSDB): 1% (was 1%)
Rogério Miranda (DC): 1% (was 0%)
Hilton Xavier (Avante): 0% (was 2%)
Mário Rocha (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Barô Macuxi (PSOL): 0% (er 1%)
Hipérion de Oliveira (PV): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 5%)
Undecided: 2% (was 10%)
Vote for 1st place
Nicoletti (PL): 30% (was 24%)
Teresa Surita (MDB): 26% (it was 29% in the previous survey)
Helena da Asatur (PSD): 18% (was 19%)
Chico Rodrigues (PSB): 12% (was 13%)
Hélio Fernando Barbosa Lopes (PL): 3% (was 1%)
Regina Tio Ivo (New): 3% (was 1%)
Pastor Isamar (União): 3% (was 2%)
Rogério Miranda (DC): 1% (was 0%)
Márcio Junqueira (PSDB): 0% (was 0%)
Hilton Xavier (Avante): 0% (was 3%)
Mário Rocha (PSOL): 0% (was 0%)
Bartô Macuxi (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Hipérion de Oliveira (PV): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 1% (was 4%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 3% (was 3%)
Vote for 2nd place
Teresa Surita (MDB): 20% (was 15%)
Nicoletti (PL): 18% (was 14%)
Helena da Asatur (PSD): 18% (was 14%)
Chico Rodrigues (PSB): 16% (was 16% in the previous survey)
Hélio Fernando Barbosa Lopes (PL): 7% (was 3%)
Regina Tio Ivo (New): 5% (was 6%)
Pastor Isamar (União): 3% (was 4%)
Hilton Xavier (Avante): 1% (was 2%)
Mário Rocha (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Hipérion de Oliveira (PV): 1% (was 0%)
Márcio Junqueira (PSDB): 0% (was 2%)
Rogério Miranda (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Bartô Macuxi (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 3% (was 15%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 7% (was 7%)
Vote decision
For 20%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 79% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 79% (it was 76% in the previous survey)
May change: 20% (was 24%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
Spontaneous search
Teresa Surita (MDB): 14% (was 12%)
Nicoletti (PL): 13% (was 12%)
Helena da Asatur (PSD): 12% (it was 12% in the previous survey)
Chico Rodrigues (PSB): 9% (was 10%)
Hélio Fernando Barbosa Lopes (PL): 5% (was 1%)
Regina Tio Ivo (New): 3% (was 2%)
Pastor Isamar (União): 1% (was 1%)
Bartô Macuxi (PSOL): 1% (was 0%)
Márcio Junqueira (PSDB): 1% (was 1%)
Mário Rocha (PSOL): 1% (was 0%)
Hilton Xavier (Avante): 0% (was 2%)
Hipérion de Oliveira (PV): 0% (was 0%)
Rogério Miranda (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 2% (was 3%)
Undecided: 38% (was 44%)
Others: 0% (was 0%)
The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number RR-08283/2026.
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