
AI-generated summary
Tarcísio de Freitas and Fernando Haddad are competing for the position of governor of São Paulo for the second time. The first round of elections takes place this Sunday (4).
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are competing for the second time for the position of governor of SP this Sunday (4). — Photo: Montagem/g1/Disclosure/TV Globo
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of São Paulo is going. Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) appears with 60% of the valid votes and Fernando Haddad, with 36%. Considering this result, the governor has a chance of winning the election in the first round.
Valid votes
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 60%
Fernando Haddad (PT): 36%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 2%
Vivian Mendes (UP): 2%
Carlos Machado (PCB): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
The survey was commissioned by Globo and interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number SP-04726/2026.
Total votes
See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 44% (was 44% on September 29)
Fernando Haddad (PT): 26% (was 24%)
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1% (was 1%)
Carlos Machado (PCB): 1% (was 1%)
Vivian Mendes (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Undecided: 15% (was 16%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 12% (was 12%)
Spontaneous search
Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.
These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 31% (was 29% on September 29)
Fernando Haddad (PT): 16% (was 13%)
Others: 1% (was 1%)
Undecided: 47% (was 53%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 4%)
Vote decision
Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 81% say the decision is final. Another 19% say they can still change their mind.
Choice is final: 81% (it was 78% on September 29)
Could change: 19% (was 22%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 0% (was 0%)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Tarcísio de Freitas will win the election in the first round with more than 50% of the valid votes.
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