On the eve of the first round of elections, the former mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes (PSD) has 49% of valid voting intentions for the state government dispute, according to a survey released this Saturday (3) by Datafolha.
His main opponent in the dispute, the president of Alerj, Douglas Ruas (PL), has 40% of valid voting intentions. The difference between the two, which was 17 percentage points ten days ago, went to 9 percentage points.
These data consider the scenario without the presence of Anthony Garotinho (Republicans). Minister Floriano Marques, from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), determined that the votes given to the former governor must be considered null due to the rejection of the candidacy registration at the TRE (Regional Electoral Court). The candidate appealed the decisions.
The calculation of valid voting intentions disregards interviewees who declared a null, blank or undecided vote. The procedure is comparable to that used by the Electoral Court to count and publish the official election results.
The candidate who obtains more than half of the valid votes wins in the first round. If none of them exceeds 50%, a second round will need to be held.
Contracted by Folha and TV Globo, the Datafolha survey, registered with the TSE under number RJ- 01334/2026, interviewed 2,010 voters from Friday (28) to this Saturday. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
On a third level are all the other candidates, technically tied. Councilor Willian Siri (PSOL) appears with 4% of valid voting intentions. Retired PM colonel João Jacques Busnello (Missão) and businessman André Marinho (Novo) have 2% each. Unionist Cyro Garcia (PSTU), Juliete Pantoja (UP) and Luan Monteiro (PCO) registered 1%.
In the total votes in this survey, 5% declared that they were undecided, while 7% of those interviewed stated that they intended to cancel the vote or leave it blank.
In a decision this Friday (2), Minister Floriano Marques, from the TSE, determined that the votes for Garotinho "should not be considered valid for any purpose once and will appear in the condition of 'annulled sub judice', given the decision currently in force to reject the candidacy".
In the scenario in which the former governor's name was presented to the voter, Paes accounted for 46% of the intentions of valid votes, Ruas, 38% and the former governor, 7%.
The analysis of the total votes including Garotinho shows how Paes maintained a stable percentage throughout the campaign, within the margin of error, while Ruas maintained an upward trend.
The former mayor recorded 41% of total voting intentions, the same level as previous surveys. The president of Alerj has 34%, fluctuating positively by 3 percentage points in relation to the last survey, having risen from 19% in August.
The difference of 22 percentage points recorded at the beginning of the campaign in total votes fell to the current 7 percentage points in the scenario with Garotinho.
In the spontaneous survey, when the respondent declares his vote without analyzing the options, Paes remains stagnant at 29%, the same percentage presented in the last two surveys. Ruas appears with 22%, fluctuating positively by 3 percentage points in relation to the last survey, two days ago.
Voters for the PL president have a higher rate of conviction in their vote, as 89% of them declare that they are completely decided. This percentage is slightly lower among those who choose Paes (81%). Among those who opted for Garotinho, 69% declared themselves completely decided.
In the second round simulation between Paes and Ruas, the former mayor remains ahead, but with a decreasing advantage. He appears with 50% of voting intentions against 41% for the president of Alerj. The difference, which on the eve of the election was 9 percentage points, was 20 at the beginning of the campaign.
