As recently as Tuesday, the Philadelphia Phillies held a comfortable four-game lead on a postseason berth, and it felt like only a matter of time until they clinched. Three straight losses and three straight Arizona Diamondbacks wins later, Philadelphia's lead is down to one game, and suddenly their season is on the line during this final weekend.
"You have to find a way to win a game tomorrow," Kyle Schwarber said (via MLB.com) after Friday's loss (TB 2, PHI 0). "Keep trying to find a way to win games. We've got two left. We've still got the ball in our court right now, and if we go out there and we do what we need to do, we control our own future. And that's what we want. I wouldn't want it any other way than us to decide what happens."
NL WILD-CARD STANDINGS
1. San Diego Padres: 89-71 (clinched)
2. Chicago Cubs: 88-73 (clinched)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 87-73
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 86-74 (1 GB)
The Phillies have scored two runs in their last three games. They haven't hit a home run since Tuesday and have one homer in their last six games, and three homers in their last nine games. The Phillies have hit the fewest homers, stolen the third-fewest bases, and scored the second-fewest runs in September, and now Luis Arraez is sidelined with a left ankle sprain.
"You don't feel great about it because he was so sore this morning," interim manager Don Mattingly said Friday (via MLB.com), the day after Arraez twisted his ankle on a play at first base.
While things have unraveled for the Phillies, the D-backs have put together an inspired stretch that has seen them win six straight games. Nolan Arenado hit his 30th home run in Friday's win (ARI 11, SD 4). He has four homers in his last five games and nine homers in his last 17 games. Arizona has scored 48 runs during the six-game winning streak, or an average of eight per game.
"Something magical is going to happen here," Geraldo Perdomo said after Friday's win (via MLB.com). "... It feels crazy, especially when you have a (four-game deficit). You feel the pressure. But right now, I don't feel like anyone is feeling pressure. We're just having fun and going out there and trying to win a game. That's all that matters to us. It doesn't matter how we're going to do it."
The schedule has certainly played a role here. The Phillies ran into the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers this past week, while the D-backs went to Coors Field to play the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies. In the end, every team plays almost the same schedule, but when you play certain teams can swing a postseason race. The schedule has been a factor to some degree here.
The Phillies are on the verge of a horrific collapse and the D-backs a miraculous comeback. The weekend weather forecasts match the vibes: Philadelphia will play through a rainy nor'easter while the D-backs are in sunny San Diego. Here's what you need to know about the race for the third wild-card spot with two days remaining in the regular season.
Tiebreaker status
Because there's not enough pressure on the Phillies already, they lose the tiebreaker to the D-backs. The two teams tied the season series 3-3, and the next tiebreaker is intradivision record, or each team's record within its division. The Phillies went 28-24 (.538) against the NL East. The D-backs are 32-18 (.640) against the NL West. Arizona holds the tiebreaker over the Phillies.
This means the D-backs only need to pull even with the Phillies to get the third wild-card spot. The Phillies must finish ahead of the D-backs to get in, and since their lead is down to one game, they've already exhausted their margin of error.
Possible outcomes
As grim as things look for the Phillies, they could clinch the third wild-card spot as soon as Saturday night. A win over the Tampa Bay Rays and a D-backs loss to the Padres would do it. Speaking purely as a baseball fan who enjoys down-to-the-wire races, I hope it comes down to Game 162. It's been a while since we had a good in-or-out race on the regular season's final day.
Anyway, here are the possible outcomes this weekend. The Phillies need two outcomes (wins or D-backs losses) to go their way to clinch a postseason berth. The D-backs need three outcomes (wins or Phillies losses) to go their way.
Nine possible outcomes this weekend and six favor the Phillies, so, as bad as things have gone these last few days, they are still in the driver's seat. The Phillies can punch their ticket with wins Saturday and Sunday, no matter what the D-backs do. Philadelphia must lose a game at some point this weekend for Arizona to have a chance.
The weekend ahead
SATURDAY
Rays at Phillies: 7:15 p.m. ET (RHP Griffin Jax vs. TBA)
D-backs at Padres: 8:40 p.m. ET (TBA vs. RHP Walker Buehler)
SUNDAY
Rays at Phillies: 3:05 p.m. ET (RHP Nick Martinez vs. RHP Zack Wheeler)
D-backs at Padres: 3:10 p.m. ET (RHP Michael Soroka vs. TBA)
Saturday night against the AL-best Rays, the Phillies will use a bullpen game, one that figures to feature recent waiver-claim José Urquidy prominently. Aaron Nola, who started Wednesday's game, cut down on his between-starts work so he could be available to get some outs, if needed. Arizona also has a bullpen game planned for Saturday. Corbin Burnes, the scheduled starter, was shut down this week with shoulder inflammation.
For the Phillies, the nightmare scenario is this race bleeding into Sunday, and forcing them to start Wheeler. That would take him out of play for the Wild Card Series next week. Jesús Luzardo, who has been out with an achy shoulder since Sept. 7, could come off the injured list and pitch in relief Sunday. He threw a bullpen session on Thursday.
If the Phillies clinch Saturday, Wheeler won't start Sunday. He'll be pushed back to Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, and the Phillies will cobble together nine innings on the final day of the season in a way that doesn't compromise anyone's availability for the Wild Card Series next week.
