The toll of damage and looting on the sidelines of the demonstrations of October 17 is heavy for traders. “The first returns from insurance companies tell us that we would exceed one billion euros,” CCI France reported this Tuesday. “For Paris, we are in the hundreds of millions,” said the network of chambers of commerce. These provisional estimates were calculated by the IFRAP Foundation. The liberal think tank estimates the bill at around 1.1 billion euros in its high hypothesis, which it uses as a reference, including nearly 910 million in material damage and 190 million in operating losses or shortfalls following the cessation or reduction of activity. Businesses account for the majority of this amount (666 million euros), ahead of public goods (200 million), including the Limoges town hall, ravaged by the flames.
The damage should thus exceed that of the riots following the death of Nahel, in the summer of 2023, which had cost insurers 793 million euros for 16,400 claims, and around a billion euros from all financiers combined, according to the Senate. However, they lasted much longer (eleven nights) and affected 672 municipalities. This time, most of the damage took place during the day of Saturday October 17 and the following night, and continued on Sunday the 18th, in the shopping centers. The other estimates point in the same direction, that of a balance sheet higher than that of June-July 2023: insurers expect a charge higher than the 793 million for 2023, which the Morningstar DBRS rating agency limits to 1.2 billion euros if the violence does not intensify.
In detail, the first assessment drawn up by CCI France, still provisional, lists 2,488 businesses and businesses affected on October 17, including 1,161 severely damaged (looting, ransacking, fires) and 643 still closed. To these must be added 50 others, affected on the sidelines of the mobilization of Saturday October 24. In Marseille, 500 businesses were damaged, compared to around 400 in 2023. In Paris, there are 480, half of which were heavily damaged. But material damage only represents part of the bill. “On Saturdays of mobilization, city center businesses lose up to 80% of their turnover,” insists CCI France. Untouched shops remain closed, others open but suffer cruelly from the lack of traffic caused by the mobilizations. In Lyon, one of the city's biggest cafes only made 117 euros in revenue during one day of the event.
CCI France calls for a ban on demonstrations until the end of year holidays
The timing of social mobilization aggravates the shock. The end of the year represents 40% of the annual turnover of local commerce, which is worth around 100 billion euros per year. Christmas stocks were already ordered and in store. According to CCI France, each weekend where traders cannot work costs 1.5 billion euros in turnover, including 200 million euros in VAT for the State. For traders who have been hit hard since 2018, between the “yellow vest” crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the 2023 riots and a decline in purchasing power, it could be “the final blow” if the situation does not improve, warns CCI France. The summer has already been difficult, with sales down 20 to 30% due to the extreme heat.
The precedent of the yellow vests gives the measure of the risk. From mid-November 2018 to mid-March 2019, the loss of turnover reached an average of 400 million euros per weekend. IFRAP retains 190 million euros of operating losses in its high hypothesis for the weekend of October 17 and 18 alone. Faced with this risk, the president of CCI France Alain Di Crescenzo is calling for a ban on demonstrations until the end of year holidays, even in the outskirts, because they scare away customers. “We absolutely must revive trade,” he insists.
